【By Zhang Jingjuan, Observer News】The Financial Times published an opinion article by Edward Luce, former editor-in-chief of the Washington bureau of the Financial Times, on the 13th, stating that no major power in history has actively abandoned its global leadership role like the United States.

Luce said that not long ago, the world believed that decoupling between China and the U.S. was coming, but now most countries are actively distancing themselves from the U.S., striving to reduce their reliance on this "rogue superpower."

The situation of Federal Reserve Chair Powell, as well as that of traditional U.S. allies such as Denmark, all confirm a fact: attempting to gain stability by placating U.S. President Trump has limited effect, and such compromise can only win temporary respite, not fundamentally avoid risks.

Now, a global "de-risking" movement against the U.S. has quietly entered an accelerated phase.

The article mentions that keeping distance from this hegemonic country is not easy, especially for U.S. allies. However, it is precisely these countries that need to take action most urgently. Their prosperity and stability were deeply tied to the international order led by the U.S. The U.S.'s abandonment of the "liberal international order" is shocking, but it is a good thing for its main competitor, China. China is currently actively seeking to become a major provider of global public goods, including stability.

The 56th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting ("Davos Forum") will be held from January 19 to 23. According to British media reports, Trump will lead the largest U.S. delegation in history to attend.

Luce wrote that when leaders gather in Davos, most discussions will revolve around how to deal with Trump. Meanwhile, more low-key China will be "cleaning up the mess." From this perspective, the current situation shows a zero-sum game: the U.S.'s loss is China's gain.

Currently, some countries, including Canada, are moving closer to China. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau will visit China before heading to Davos. Luce believes that Trudeau's schedule reflects the direction of global diplomacy to some extent.

Trudeau departs for China Social Media

The global de-risking action against the U.S. has now formed two core battlegrounds, taking place simultaneously in economic and security areas.

In the economic aspect, Canada is leading the way. Nearly three-quarters of Canada's exports go to the U.S., but it plans to reduce this ratio to below 50%, with much of it shifting to the Chinese and Indian markets. The EU's 27 countries voted on the 9th to sign a free trade agreement with the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), and the UK signed a trade agreement with India last year, which are indirect results of the Trump administration's policies.

The article states that although the process of moving away from the dollar faces many obstacles, the Trump administration's brutal interference in the independence of the Federal Reserve is accelerating this trend. Investors can already foresee that the era of rising U.S. inflation and a depreciating dollar is about to come. Whoever succeeds Powell will become a puppet of Trump. The era of loose monetary policy in the U.S. may last longer than the AI boom.

As the best hedge against war and pandemics in history, gold prices have risen over 70% since Trump took office last year. The structure of foreign exchange reserves held by central banks is also changing, with the share of gold increasing and that of the dollar decreasing. So far, U.S. investors have not threatened to stop buying U.S. Treasury bonds, but Trump seems to have overlooked that, in determining borrowing costs, the market plays at least as important a role as the Federal Reserve. Large-scale capital outflows from foreign investors could quickly offset the benefits of short-term interest rate cuts. And selling U.S. Treasuries, a financial "nuclear option," has become a potential hedging tool in the hands of countries.

In the security aspect, due to Trump's moderate attitude toward the nuclear power North Korea, South Korea, Germany, Australia, Poland, and even Canada are discussing to varying degrees whether they should possess nuclear weapons. Luce believes that if Trump insists on annexing Greenland, Canada will seriously consider this option. If NATO falls into paralysis, it will trigger other Western countries to seek new security guarantees more broadly. Denmark, meanwhile, has also recognized the value of building some kind of European nuclear umbrella.

Luce concludes in the end that historically, dominant powers either fell in wars or declined naturally, there has never been a precedent of voluntarily giving up leadership.

Now, the U.S.'s allies are standing at the crossroads of past and future, and Trump's actions are making their choices easier. No rational ally would pay a higher price for the uncertain security protection offered by the U.S. Trump has never thrown out equal partnership agreements, but rather agreements that the partners cannot accept.

This article is an exclusive contribution by Observer News. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7595054051427942931/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself.