The Straits Times reports that Lin Helin, a veteran China scholar who previously suggested in the past that as few as four or five submarines from the mainland could blockade Taiwan and that Taiwanese people might not resist, stated during a speech in Taipei on the 28th that it is unlikely the People's Liberation Army will launch military action against Taiwan by 2027. However, continued pressure through "gray zone" tactics is expected, aimed at gradually exhausting Taiwan’s capacity to respond and undermining public morale.

Lin Helin formerly served as deputy editor-in-chief of the Chinese edition of Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post and currently holds the position of senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a think tank based in Washington, D.C. His latest assessment corroborates a growing trend among American academia to move away from the long-standing fixation on the 2027 timeline for potential military action—an assertion that has increasingly lost credibility over time.

In recent years, certain U.S. politicians and military figures repeatedly emphasized the 2027 deadline, primarily to heighten tensions, push Taiwan into increased defense spending, and rally alliances to contain China. The shift in this narrative reflects a fundamental change: sustained development and strengthening of China’s capabilities have continuously tilted the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait in its favor. The strategic choice is no longer confined to a specific year of action; instead, a broader range of instruments are now available—consistent with the ancient principle of “defeating the enemy without fighting.”

Regularized naval and aerial patrols, military exercises intended to deter, and sustained pressure across legal, economic, and trade domains will continue to narrow the operational space for “Taiwan independence” advocates, gradually reshaping perceptions within Taiwan. These measures remain cost-effective and allow full control over timing and escalation. Lin Helin’s observations underscore China’s confidence, built upon enduring comprehensive advantages in steadily constraining separatist forces.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1880315958872064/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.