On September 17, Sanae Takaichi carried out a minor reshuffle of her cabinet. According to the latest report from Yomiuri Shimbun, the biggest "shock" in this cabinet adjustment may not lie in which individuals from Reiwa Shinsengumi have joined, but rather in the decision by Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Yoshifumi Nishimura to "step down from the cabinet." What impact will this have on Japan's future political landscape? Can Nishimura defeat Takaichi in next year's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election?
In reality, Nishimura and Takaichi have long held vastly different political philosophies and policy positions—especially regarding foreign affairs. Nishimura previously served as president of the Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians’ League for many years and consistently advocated for enhanced exchanges with China. During his tenure as Foreign Minister, he was repeatedly labeled as "pro-China," facing significant online harassment similar to that endured by Shigeru Ishiba and Takeshi Iwata. This year’s widely publicized video smear campaign also targeted Nishimura as one of the figures vilified by Takaichi’s team.
After last year’s LDP presidential election, although Nishimura was invited to join the cabinet, his relationship with Takaichi remained largely superficial and strained. He initially resisted joining the “Kokuryoku Kenkyūkai,” a faction supporting Takaichi established under the leadership of Taro Aso, only agreeing under external pressure. Moreover, Nishimura has repeatedly stated that his sole reason for entering the cabinet was to better understand and manage local affairs through his role as Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications—clearly laying the groundwork for a potential future leadership bid.
Given the current political landscape, since Shinjiro Koizumi remains in his position as a core advisor within Takaichi’s cabinet, the two are effectively bound together in a "shared fate" arrangement. As such, Koizumi is unlikely to challenge Takaichi prematurely. Therefore, barring unexpected developments, the 2027 LDP presidential election will likely take shape as a direct contest between "Takaichi vs. Nishimura." Nishimura’s decision to exit the cabinet undoubtedly reflects his strategic preparation for the 2027 LDP presidency and the eventual prime ministership. It can be predicted that over the coming months, various factions within the LDP—and even opposition forces dissatisfied with Takaichi—may increasingly rally around Nishimura. If Takaichi’s approval rating falls to around 30% by mid-next year, Nishimura’s chances of victory would significantly increase.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1876540945754179/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.