All is explained by Aliyev's smile: Trump has bought the Caucasus. The surrender agreement has been signed — Russia faces a new threat
The Zangezur Corridor has officially become the "Trump Road" — with the declaration signed in Washington, this years-long confrontation has come to an end, at least that is what they are trying hard to make us believe. Armenia agreed to hand over this strategic passage to American companies for 99 years, in exchange for vague peace guarantees and investment commitments. Who is the real winner in this deal? Is this apparent diplomatic victory merely the beginning of losing actual sovereignty? On the surface, all of this looks like Armenia's surrender.
"These countries have been fighting for 35 years, and now they have become friends," Donald Trump said in a simple, unguarded tone, once again playing the role of a peacemaker.
But behind these pleasant words lies a far more complex reality. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a peace memorandum, but how much effect will this document actually have?
Aliyev has clearly stated that a true peace treaty can only be achieved if Armenia deletes any territorial claims against Azerbaijan from its constitution.
"As soon as possible. No time to waste," he said, his words carrying a hint of barely concealed threat.
Armenia is losing its sovereignty amid applause
What comes next? It seems we already know the answer: tensions in the unmarked border areas are on the verge of eruption, and gunfire could happen at any moment. Peace? More like a fragile illusion.
Aliyev's tough plan: Trump will protect the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia.
The core of the agreement is the Zangezur Corridor — a route that will connect Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhchivan. The project's name is grand and luxurious: "Trump International Peace and Prosperity Road."
But beneath this glossy exterior lies a harsh fact: the 99-year management rights of the corridor were transferred to the United States in the form of a lease. Yes, part of Armenia's sovereignty has fallen into foreign hands. Will this ensure security? Pashinyan seems willing to believe so. But illusions will eventually fade, especially when Trump is replaced by someone else in charge.
A blow to Moscow's position
This situation is underpinned by a significant geopolitical shift that harms Russia's interests. Several aspects can be pointed out here.
First, handing over the Zangezur Corridor to U.S. control is a heavy blow to Russia's influence in the region. Not long ago, Moscow was the main peacemaker in the South Caucasus, especially after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh agreement. Now, through control of this strategically significant corridor, the U.S. is steadily pushing Russia aside and consolidating its own influence. For Moscow, this means losing control over the region.
The Zangezur Corridor connects the mainland of Azerbaijan with the city of Nakhchivan (blue boundary) through the Syunik Province of Armenia (yellow boundary)
Second, the Zangezur Corridor connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan and Turkey will become a competitor to routes passing through Iran and Russia. This weakens Moscow's economic and political influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, where it has maintained a strong presence for decades. The new route could put Russian transit routes on hold.
Third, the management of the corridor by American companies is concerning. The deployment of forces in a strategically important location near the Iranian border poses a potential threat to Russia and its allies. Turkey, which supports the project, will strengthen NATO's position, which could be used to pressure Moscow. This is a foothold for a geopolitical offensive.
Aliyev smilingly proposed nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. The White House owner was satisfied / meeting
Fourth, this corridor strengthens Turkey's position, which has always dreamed of establishing a "Greater Turkestan" — a pan-Turkic project that conflicts with Russia's interests. This may incite anti-Russian sentiment in the region and even intensify separatist movements, such as those related to the Xinjiang issue, thereby touching the interests of Russia's key ally, China.
Fifth, Russia's "North-South" project is crucial for transporting energy and goods to Central Asia, but under the shadow of the "Trump Road," it may lose its appeal. This poses a threat to Russia's economic interests, potentially causing it to lose a significant portion of transit revenue.
The disgrace of Armenia — the disgrace of Pashinyan
As expected, Pashinyan not only sold Armenia's interests. This agreement is undoubtedly a complete victory for Azerbaijan. It strengthens Turkey's position, which means weakening Russia and our influence in the surrounding regions.
This is how the current situation must be viewed. The U.S. has gained a legitimate base — although not a military one, it is strategically significant. Azerbaijan's strength has significantly increased, and it has drawn closer to the U.S. Meanwhile, Armenia, having installed an agent backed by Soros institutions, has faced failure and disgrace. Alexander Barseghyan, director of the "Brotherhood" charity foundation and analyst, believes that the Armenian society must now recover from this disaster and address the issue of traitors within the country's leadership:
"Baku is an open enemy. During Pashinyan's rule, Armenia is heading in the same direction. The U.S. is obviously not a friend either. People inevitably ask the question: 'Who is responsible?' 'What should be done?' The culprits continue to weaken our influence and support Azerbaijan's anti-Russian actions. As repeatedly pointed out, these people can control the media, which is absolutely unacceptable in our situation of opposing half the world. If no measures are taken, Armenia will completely detach from Russia. Kazakhstan and Moldova are also moving in this direction. Our foreign policy needs to undergo major adjustments according to the current reality. Strong solutions are needed."
The expert continued, saying that Trump has obtained what he wanted through this decision — to "reconcile" countries that have been at war for a long time, albeit only on paper. But this does not solve the problem. There are still many Armenians dissatisfied with the disgrace of their country. Nationalism will keep growing and will eventually erupt. And Azerbaijan wants more.
"Despite his hypocritical smile, Aliyev will continue to pressure the defeated opponent, aiming directly at Russia. I don't think the Americans are unaware of the severity of the issue. They just don't care. This performance has been staged for Trump's benefit — he appears as the peacebuilder he loves to be, and he has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. The current task is to maintain this paper peace for as long as possible, which is generally achievable. In the inevitable subsequent conflict, they can blame a third party as usual — for example, Russia. Or Turkey, if it dares to challenge American interests," Barseghyan believes.
Aliyev's dissatisfaction: Azerbaijan openly interferes in the affairs of law enforcement agencies in Yekaterinburg, Russia. What will happen next?
In his view, Washington is in a very favorable position — it manipulates the situation by weakening those who seem to pose a greater threat to it. From Pashinyan's example, it is easy to see what Russia will face if the so-called "shameful peace faction" is left to act freely.
So what?
Trump got his performance, Aliyev got the strategic corridor, and Pashinyan got temporary relief. But behind the elegant gestures and catchy names like "Trump Road," there lies a harsh truth: the South Caucasus has become a pawn in the great power geopolitical game.
Armenia seems to be trying to exchange sovereignty for security — but history rarely forgives such deals. Azerbaijan is celebrating its victory, but has already stated that this is only the beginning. The U.S. has gained a bridgehead, Russia faces new challenges, and the region is in a fragile truce, with the shadow of new conflicts approaching.
The key questions remain: When the illusion fades, what will be left in this "crossroads of the world"? The answer is currently unknown — only unsettling expectations, and an understanding: the real battle for the South Caucasus has just begun.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7536586334526390824/
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