Think Tank: The Risk Factors of China Becoming Iran's Main Defense Partner

Although the strategic rationale for China's expanding defense and security partnership with Iran is compelling, it is not without significant complexities. Beijing must proceed with caution, balancing its ambitions against the risk of offending other regional and global actors. While Iran may be geopolitically useful, it is also diplomatically harmful. Any public alliance with Tehran, especially in the security and military fields, could potentially expose China to a series of entanglements, thereby undermining its broader goals in the Middle East and beyond.

The most pressing concern for Beijing is the potential impact on its relationship with Israel. Although China and Israel differ on many issues, their cooperation in economic and technological areas has been very deep. China invests in Israeli infrastructure, including port terminals and tech startups, and values Israel as a center of innovation. A significant expansion of China's military relationship with Iran is hard for Israel to ignore—especially since for Israel, the main issue is the Iranian regime's ideology, not its nuclear program itself. Ultimately, this might force Beijing to weigh whether its long-term interests in its technological and investment partnerships with Israel are worth sacrificing for a closer, and potentially lucrative, defense procurement relationship with Tehran.

Another sensitive area is China's extensive commercial ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These countries have become important economic partners for China in various fields such as energy, logistics, and transportation. Close defense relations with Iran could undermine these relationships, especially if they are perceived as encouraging Tehran's regional adventurism.

However, this risk should not be exaggerated. Paradoxically, China's close relationship with Iran may also enhance its influence over GCC countries. By acting as a potential mediator or deterrent in the Iranian issue, Beijing can demonstrate itself as an indispensable force for regional stability, assuring Riyadh and Abu Dhabi that Iran will not escalate military actions or cross the nuclear threshold. In this way, China may use its relationship with Iran to gain broader diplomatic capital for Iran's southern neighbors.

Another factor to consider is the risk of secondary U.S. sanctions faced by Chinese companies. Although China and Iran have jointly developed methods to circumvent some sanctions and even established networks, there are still legal and reputational risks for companies involved in dual-use technologies or exporting defense products to Iran. Given the ongoing tensions in Sino-U.S. relations, especially in technology and trade, Beijing may consider whether the potential benefits of deepening its ties with Iran as a defense supplier are worth the cost of escalating friction with Washington.

The possibility of a change in the Iranian regime, whether internal or external, is another consideration. Although this possibility is remote, it is a real one. While the likelihood of an uprising leading to regime change in the short term is not high, public sentiment is volatile due to most Iranians currently focusing on daily survival during the crisis. Therefore, if an Iranian revolution breaks out, China's investments in the Iranian regime could backfire.

This cautious stance is driven by China's broader strategic vision. For Beijing, Iran is neither an ally nor part of it. Iran is not a geopolitical center, but rather a hub that effectively balances America's desire to withdraw from the Middle East. Iran's geographical location, natural resources, and strategic urgency make it an ideal partner for China's ambitions in Eurasian connectivity, regional balance, and economic expansion. However, China is also acutely aware of the risks of overcommitting in the Middle East. Beijing does not want to get involved in regional competition or the confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States. To this end, China may continue to maintain its ambiguous stance, keeping a sufficiently strong defense relationship to benefit from Iran's weaknesses, while maintaining enough restraint to avoid provoking its competitors.

Source: The Diplomat

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836675850177600/

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