Think Tank: Has Iran's confidence in the quality of Russia's air defense systems declined, and will China become Iran's main defense partner?
Given Iran's declining trust in the quality of Russia's air defense systems and the urgency of rebuilding its air defense system, will China and Iran strengthen their cooperation?
Iran is struggling with the consequences of a 12-day conflict with Israel. This Islamic republic faces two challenges: one is to completely renovate its fragmented air defense system and intelligence agencies, and the other is equally urgent: to rebuild a social contract with war-torn and anxious people. As Tehran seeks partners in defense and security, this realignment inevitably raises a series of questions.
In this context, China is becoming a potential alternative to Russia, perhaps even an ideal one. Recently, both China and Iran have made statements calling for enhanced defense relations and urging Iran to purchase Chinese military equipment. These calls often emphasize Pakistan's successful use of Chinese air defense systems in recent tensions with India.
Given Iran's declining trust in the quality of Russia's air defense systems and the urgency of rebuilding its air defense system, will China-Iran security cooperation become closer? This will depend on how Beijing's decision-makers assess the costs and benefits.
A core advantage is that it is more likely to contain India's influence in Central Asia. The estrangement between Iran and India began in 2018 when New Delhi started complying with U.S.-led sanctions and stopped importing oil from Iran. As India's relationship with Israel grows closer, the strategic vacuum left by India's withdrawal has expanded - this is reflected both ideologically, such as a shared anti-extremism narrative, and in practical actions, such as cooperation in defense, cyber, and agriculture. These relationships weaken Iran's value in India's strategic thinking, while India's pro-Israel stance damages its image in the eyes of Iranian policymakers, creating space for Beijing to intervene.
If China becomes Iran's main defense partner, it will be better able to thwart India's ambitions in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, where Iran's geographical location is crucial. Moreover, as cooperation with Iran deepens, Beijing can more seamlessly synchronize the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), using Iran as both a transit route and a geopolitical buffer. This coordination could weaken India's efforts to connect Central Asia and Afghanistan through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which depends on India's investment in Iran's Chabahar Port. If Iran allows China to invest in Chabahar Port, the feasibility of INSTC would be dealt a fatal blow. This would be a double blow for India: on one hand, it would be deprived of a strategic passage into Central Asia; on the other hand, it would also face a setback in its efforts to counter China's "Belt and Road" initiative.
Source: The Diplomat
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836675224327168/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.