The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election will announce its nominations on September 22 and hold the vote on October 4. Although there are five candidates on the surface, it is clear to the outside world that the most promising contenders are Takayuki Kishimoto and Shintaro Ishihara, the minister. Notably, in addition to the election itself, three top LDP leaders, former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Taro Aso, and Fumio Kishida, have a key influence on the campaign.

These three determine the outcome of the LDP leadership election

According to "Shueisha," for Kishimoto, Kishida can be considered a "long-term rival." In last year's leadership election, Kishida urged members of the former Kishida faction to vote for someone other than Kishimoto in the runoff, which ultimately led to Kishimoto's defeat in the second round. This time, Kishimoto has learned from her mistake and visited Kishida's office early on. Although it is unclear how the talks went, "Shueisha" stated that Kishimoto still won't receive Kishida's support. Moreover, several candidates have visited Kishida, including Hashimoto, a major figure in the Kishida faction, who visited his leader early on. Additionally, important members of the Kishida faction, such as Masahiro Matsuyama, have publicly supported Hashimoto, indicating that many former Kishida faction members will support their own in the voting.

Additionally, former Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Hideki Murai and House of Representatives member Hisashi Kobayashi, who were part of the Kishida faction, support Ishihara. A source within the LDP said, "Kishida maintains contact with Ishihara through them."

Therefore, based on the current situation, the Kishida faction is likely to distribute votes in the first round between Ishihara and Hashimoto but will not support Kishimoto. In the second round, the Kishida faction may collectively support Ishihara.

A former LDP cabinet minister spoke about Kishimoto, saying it was incredible that she would visit Kishida knowing she wouldn't get his support. He also revealed a detail: during last year's LDP president election, he decided to support Ishibashi, and despite this, Kishimoto came to his office each time, saying, "Sir, please," and she did this three times, which was very frustrating.

The next prime minister is expected to emerge between these two people

Different from Kishida, last year, Aso was the biggest supporter of Kishimoto. According to an insider close to the Aso faction, Aso has personal grudges with Ishibashi and, as a traditional value supporter, is wary of Ishihara. Therefore, in last year's election, he directly ordered all members of his faction to support Kishimoto. It was because of the support from the Aso faction that Kishimoto won the first round, but in the runoff, she was surpassed by Ishibashi, who had the support of other factions. Whether Aso will fully support Kishimoto again this time remains uncertain.

An LDP insider analyzed, "Since the LDP returned to power in 2012, Aso has been a contender for the core of power and has always tried to maintain his mainstream position in politics. Therefore, he might support Kishimoto in the first round, but in the second round, he may observe the situation. If Ishihara has a good chance of winning, he might add to the success by supporting Ishihara to maintain his power."

However, some insiders within the LDP also mentioned that Suga, the political mentor of Ishihara, does not have a good relationship with Aso, so it cannot be ruled out that Aso will support Kishimoto all the way as he did last year.

Regarding Suga, his stance differs from that of Kishida and Aso. He firmly supports Ishihara's bid to become the prime minister. Suga and Ishihara are both legislators from Kanagawa Prefecture, and Ishihara held a key position in Suga's cabinet. The two have a deep sense of mutual trust. A senior parliamentarian close to Suga said, "Suga is very eager to realize the concept of 'Ishihara Prime Minister' in this presidential election."

This is a contest among the top leaders of the factions

"Shueisha" said that the sharp decline in the LDP's popularity should have accelerated their generational change, yet this leadership election still revolves around the influence of these top leaders.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7551623852275532324/

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