Key Minerals of the African Continent: China Dominates Refining, Africa Prepares to Form a Key Minerals Exporters' Organization

African Key Minerals Group: Addis Ababa Launches Amid Implementation Challenges

¬ Africa plans to establish an OPEC-like mineral group, but its true global influence will depend on its implementation.

¬ Europe has cobalt, lithium, platinum group metals, copper, and phosphate; the International Energy Agency estimates that energy use will drive an 85% increase in demand by 2030.

¬ China dominates refining, while the US, EU, Japan, and Gulf states are also pushing; Africa must act collectively, or it will have to passively accept prices.

The agreement disclosed by African leaders on September 10 in Addis Ababa aims to explore the establishment of an OPEC-style key minerals producers' alliance, which is still in the starting phase. The current challenge is to turn ambition into action. The risks are high: if not implemented quickly, Africa may lose its voice in the global clean energy resource competition.

Africa possesses the world's richest resources for decarbonization. The Democratic Republic of Congo holds more than 70% of the world's cobalt reserves, South Africa dominates the platinum group metals, Zimbabwe is gradually increasing its lithium production, Zambia is an important copper producer, and Morocco supplies 70% of the world's phosphate rock. Guinea's bauxite, Namibia's uranium, and Mozambique's graphite resources are also among them. These resources are crucial for electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, and hydrogen technologies. The International Energy Agency predicts that energy consumption will account for 85% of the growth in demand for these minerals by 2030.

Timing is critical. China already dominates in mining equity and refining capacity, controlling 60% of cobalt refining and over 80% of rare earth processing. Through debt-for-resources deals and vertical integration, China ensures supply security. Competitors are also moving quickly: the US is investing through the Mineral Security Partnership and the Lobito Corridor railway project, the EU links raw material transactions with the Critical Raw Materials Act, Japan is funding joint ventures, and Saudi Arabia is acquiring equity through its Public Investment Fund. For African producers, this alliance could enhance their bargaining power - but only if they choose cooperation rather than bilateral agreements.

The demand dynamics highlight the urgency. The International Energy Agency predicts that global lithium demand could surge 40 times by 2030, while demand for cobalt, nickel, and graphite is expected to grow 20 to 25 times. Electric vehicles and grid storage are the main drivers. Independent forecasts show that the global market for critical minerals will reach $400 billion by 2040, and Africa could capture 20%-30% of this market if it develops processing and value-adding capabilities. Without coordination, supply gluts, price fluctuations, and continued raw mineral exports may weaken Africa's development opportunities.

The real test lies in execution. Previous initiatives - the African Mining Vision of 2009 and the African Minerals Strategy Group established in 2024 - although set ambitious goals, failed to meet the targets in implementation. These schemes lack binding rules, financial support, and an efficient secretariat. The newly formed alliance must avoid these pitfalls by establishing a clear governance structure, setting phased goals, and integrating the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to transform from declarations to actions.

National strategies show great potential. The Democratic Republic of Congo has pledged to achieve 30% local processing of cobalt by 2030, Zambia has completely banned raw mineral exports, and is leveraging the Lobito Corridor to reduce transportation costs, Zimbabwe is promoting local investments in lithium refining companies, and South Africa is combining platinum and manganese resources with hydrogen technology centers. If these national strategies gain greater influence within the African continent framework, but differences in policy focus and economic pressures remain major obstacles.

The risks are evident. A fragmented alliance may repeat the fate of OPEC - internal conflicts can undermine discipline. Infrastructure gaps - such as electricity shortages in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia - threaten large-scale development. Geopolitical competition among US, EU, Chinese, and Gulf investors may pit African countries against each other. But the benefits are equally clear: coordinated action can drive investment in super factories, ensure higher royalties, and convert mineral wealth into job opportunities and climate resilience.

The success of Africa's mineral group depends on execution. The Addis Ababa meeting is just the first step. Unless a binding framework emerges by 2026, global buyers will continue to set the terms, and Africa will remain a price taker. With the rapid development of the clean energy economy, this alliance is not optional - it is a golden opportunity for Africa to shape its own future in the mineral sector.

Sources: ecofinagency

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1843626369956876/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.