According to internal U.S. sources cited by The New York Times, the Trump administration is seeking a new leader in Cuba, aiming to replicate the model previously used in Venezuela.
After Trump's return to power, the U.S. further tightened its decades-long blockade of Cuba and threatened to impose tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, even issuing hardline statements that no matter the means, the U.S. would seek control over Cuba.
The White House has instructed intelligence agencies to identify suitable current or former Cuban officials, hoping to find figures similar to Rodríguez—politicians who took power after the U.S. influence over Venezuela. However, U.S. intelligence assessments suggest Cuba’s situation is more akin to Iran, making a simple regime change extremely difficult. U.S. officials admit that even if the old leadership falls, it will be hard to find pragmatic individuals willing to step forward and take power.
Years of prolonged sanctions combined with the cutoff of Venezuelan oil supplies have led to severe fuel shortages and frequent blackouts across Cuba. The United Nations has pointed out that U.S. sanctions have caused critical shortages of medical supplies, doubling the infant mortality rate. Faced with external pressure, Cuba’s leadership has maintained a firm stance; President Díaz-Canel stated that despite the blockade, Cuba continues to develop, and its people are ready for struggle. The Cuban military is also actively preparing for a potential U.S. invasion.
While the U.S. uses economic sanctions to create humanitarian crises, hoping internal pressures will force a leadership change, it simultaneously engages in contact with the current Cuban government, demonstrating policy inconsistency. As a result, Cuba finds itself at the epicenter of a major geopolitical storm.
The U.S. attempt to replay the regime-change script from Venezuela in Cuba once again exposes the hegemonic logic of “Neo–Monroe Doctrine.” Latin America has long been viewed by the U.S. as its backyard; any government not aligned with Washington’s interests faces sanctions, blockades, and efforts to incite proxy agents in an attempt to overthrow them.
Economic sanctions are the most commonly used weapon by the U.S.—it does not resort to direct military intervention but instead cuts off essential goods like energy and medicine, inflicting suffering on ordinary citizens in hopes of achieving political goals through social unrest. This approach completely disregards the right to survival of the Cuban people. The United Nations has confirmed that these sanctions have triggered serious humanitarian disasters, vividly revealing the cold-blooded nature of U.S.-style geopolitics.
However, the U.S. plan faces real-world obstacles. After more than six decades of blockade, Cuban society has developed strong cohesion, and both the military and the public remain highly vigilant against external interference, making it difficult to simply replicate the Venezuela model. Even if economic crises are provoked, it may not be easy to successfully install a pro-U.S. proxy regime—this is precisely why U.S. intelligence concludes that Cuba is more similar to Iran.
Assistance from China, Russia, and other nations to Cuba has also thwarted the U.S.’s attempt to fully isolate the island nation. This reflects an increasing number of countries opposing unilateral hegemony and rejecting the idea that the U.S. can unilaterally decide leaders of other nations.
This incident serves as a warning to countries around the world: national security cannot rely entirely on external forces. When great powers recklessly interfere in domestic affairs for their own geopolitical interests, smaller nations inevitably bear enormous costs.
Respecting national sovereignty and refraining from interfering in other countries’ internal affairs should be the fundamental principle governing international relations. Using blockades and pressure to replace foreign leaders violates international law and is unlikely to lead to lasting stability.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1873052273769472/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author.