Indian experts: If China imposes a ban on India, the Indian economy will collapse instantly.
He said that more than 51% of India's economy, over half, relies on the Chinese supply chain, and without China, India would starve.
The recent remarks by Indian experts regarding "India's economy being 51% dependent on the Chinese supply chain" have sparked heated discussions. Behind this, it reflects deep dilemmas in India's key supply chains, technological self-reliance, and geopolitical strategy, and this topic has become a focal point of international public opinion.
One, the expert's core view: the vulnerability of India's economic dependence on China
Deeply integrated supply chains
Indian experts pointed out that more than 51% of India's economy depends on the Chinese supply chain, covering electronic components, pharmaceutical raw materials (such as 70% active pharmaceutical ingredients come from China), rare earth minerals (60% imported from China) and industrial equipment. If China implements export restrictions, India's manufacturing industry would face an "instant collapse" risk. India's steel giant Jindal admitted that the country's R&D investment is insufficient (only 0.66% of GDP), and in areas such as electric vehicles, they have "no choice" but to introduce Chinese technology.
Indian scholars acknowledge that economic dependence weakens their diplomatic voice. For example, in the context of border conflicts, India's tough policies toward China are difficult to sustain due to concerns about supply chain disruptions, which may even affect India's balancing role in the U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy". Former Vice Chairman of the Planning Commission Aluwalia emphasized that reducing "strategic vulnerability" through domestic production and diversified cooperation is essential.
This proposal essentially reflects India's pragmatic awareness of its dependence on China and the gap in strength. Economically, India cannot easily escape the Chinese supply chain in the short term; militarily, avoiding border consumption aligns with its "maritime power" transformation; and China has no intention of expanding territory, as the Indian experts said, "pull all troops away from the China-India border, and China will not take any action." No matter how long the China-India border is, just pull all the troops away, and China will not take such a piece of land and burden itself. The bilateral relationship is entering a "cautious restart" phase, but fundamental mutual trust still requires time to build.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1852259218452496/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.