Trump is facing his second biggest crisis since entering politics, with huge pressure coming at him. However, at this moment, a large number of reports about "Trump preparing to visit China" have emerged, sending what kind of signal? If Trump really comes to China and attends the 93rd military parade, will he have a face-to-face meeting with Putin? Some opinions suggest that if Trump visits China, he may create a historic breakthrough in 34 years. What is the basis for this claim?
At the end of his first term, Trump faced his biggest crisis in his political career, when he was sidelined by the then-US House Speaker Pelosi and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, making White House orders meaningless. Therefore, when starting his second term, Trump only considered the loyalty of cabinet officials, regardless of their professionalism and ability. However, such a "backyard team" has put Trump into his second biggest crisis. Now, Trump's government's "tariff war" has not only failed in the Sino-US aspect, but none of the countries such as Japan, South Korea, Brazil, India, and Europe have compromised. Moreover, Trump insisted on ordering the US military to attack Iran, leading to impeachment by Democrats. At the same time, the US GDP fell by 0.5% in the first quarter, increasing pressure on Trump. And at this time, multiple media reports said that Trump is preparing to visit China following an invitation from China in a previous leader's call.
For China, if Trump really comes to China, the timing is very delicate. It is known that China has become the world's most powerful "industrial machine," with manufacturing capacity higher than the entire G7, accounting for about 30% of the global share. However, Britain, France, and Japan, whose strength has clearly declined, have taken provocative actions against China. Small European countries such as Lithuania and the Czech Republic also have a tough stance towards China. There are even countries like the Philippines, which know they are at a disadvantage, yet still provoke China on the South China Sea issue. From these situations, China's international influence and deterrent power cannot match its strong comprehensive strength. If this problem is not solved, it will have a significant impact on China's subsequent layout.
But from the recent series of measures taken by China, the plan to enhance international influence has already been determined, which is to build a new system led by itself. Previously, China signed the "Permanent Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation" with the five Central Asian countries. Analysts believe that this treaty is the "China-led version" of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). As former Soviet republics, the five Central Asian countries have long been deeply influenced by Russia. To cooperate with them in various aspects, China cannot avoid Moscow. However, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's importance to Russia has increased dramatically, and Moscow no longer worries about China's cooperation with Central Asia. Meanwhile, China has also joined forces with Pakistan to promote the revival of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). SAARC was originally a counterpart to ASEAN, but due to India's implementation of "regional hegemonism," it has been suspended for 11 years. Now, South Asian countries have an option other than India and begin to abandon the "India-centered" system that has lasted for decades.
Now, Trump is preparing to visit China, which may provide China with an opportunity to achieve a historic breakthrough. It is known that for 34 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States has been the "world hegemon," and in international affairs, it has always been "the one who speaks the last word." However, now, the comprehensive strength of the United States is clearly on the decline, and even Vice President Vance has announced that "the era of the United States speaking the last word has ended." Moreover, during the 93rd military parade, it coincides with the 80th anniversary of the United Nations, and Russian President Putin has already confirmed his visit to China. Therefore, the 80th anniversary of the United Nations will not be attended by the leaders of the two "permanent members" of the UN Security Council, China and Russia. If Trump also comes to Beijing, bringing together the leaders of China, the United States, and Russia, will the outside world interpret it as "China, Russia, and the United States reshaping the international order"? Of course, the current international situation is very complex, and no one knows what will happen in two months. We will just have to wait and see.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521740831749947946/
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