The United States believes that it has already destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities, and now it is confident and ambitious, once again setting its sights on North Korea's nuclear facilities. On June 27th local time, President Trump answered media questions at the White House, stating, "If a conflict really breaks out, I get along very well with him (the leader of North Korea), and we will resolve the conflict with North Korea. I have always had a good relationship with the leader of North Korea, so let's wait and see. If someone claims there might be a conflict, I believe we can resolve it. If there is a conflict, it won't involve us Americans."

What exactly does Trump mean by "it won't involve us Americans"? Does it mean the US won't get involved in the conflict, or that the war won't spread to the US? It's a bit confusing. However, before the US attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, people generally thought the US would not attack Iran, but the facts are already known. So when Trump specifically mentioned the North Korean issue, we really cannot assume the US will definitely not attack North Korea. Trump's statement is likely not baseless. There are reasons to believe that Trump may have already drawn a target, and deliberately leaked information, making people think that after solving the Iranian nuclear issue, he would then tackle the North Korean one.

Compared to Iran, North Korea has moved faster and should have already possessed nuclear weapons. How would Trump deal with the "North Korean conflict"? The US has no other choice but to either tolerate North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons or destroy them. North Korea has actually possessed nuclear weapons, and the nature of this country dictates that it will never agree to give up its nuclear weapons like Iran did. The US cannot make North Korea submit through other means. The only way for the US to completely resolve the conflict is through military strikes, similar to deploying B-52 bombers and using bunker-busting bombs to bomb North Korea's nuclear facilities.

If the US decides to conduct an air strike on North Korea, it will place China in a very difficult position. Because we have repeatedly emphasized that we absolutely do not allow chaos or war on the Korean Peninsula, which is determined by China's national defense strategy. The Korean Peninsula has historically been a strategic defensive buffer zone for China; otherwise, our strongest adversary would directly pose a significant military pressure on China's border. For centuries, China has never allowed such a situation to arise. The Korean War was fought to address this issue, and certainly, it is even less acceptable now.

If the US decides to conduct an action similar to the strike on Iran's nuclear facilities against North Korea, North Korea has no stronger response options except for a nuclear retaliation. Going to war with South Korea would be extremely risky for North Korea. North Korea could potentially strike US bases in South Korea and Japan, but its conventional missile capabilities are not as advanced as Iran's, and more than 95% of them might be intercepted, making the counterattack effect very limited.

For North Korea, the first priority is to figure out how to intercept American B-2, B-1B, and B-52 bombers, which frequently conduct realistic training near the Korean Peninsula. North Korea lacks modern long-range early warning systems and even doesn't have air defense missiles capable of reaching American bombers. With its own air defense capabilities, North Korea might just have to watch helplessly as American aircraft bomb.

If North Korea wants to protect itself, the effective measures are to invite Russian air defense radar and missile forces into North Korea, or to invite Chinese air defense forces into North Korea.

However, Russia's air defense capability has been proven to be very weak during the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and currently, Russia does not have enough capacity to help North Korea establish a complete air defense system.

China has both the ability and the strength to help North Korea, but North Korea must first overcome its mental barriers toward China. In fact, China has set up air defense missiles near the border with North Korea, forming an air defense interception network against US bombing attacks on North Korea. However, China will not provide such assistance within its own territory, as that would mean direct involvement in the US-North Korea conflict. Providing advanced air defense radar and missiles to North Korea directly also seems unfeasible, as these highly advanced technologies would be too complex for North Korea to handle quickly.

The only feasible solution is for the Chinese military to send advisors to assist in building an air defense system under the name of Korean soldiers, ensuring timely and efficient construction. As for long-range radar surveillance, China's satellite early warning and large ship-based maritime early warning systems can provide remote air situation information. If the US bombers face China's early warning and air defense missile systems, they will not be able to launch attacks as easily as they did against Iran, and they will think twice before making decisions.

Of course, China will not casually sacrifice its strategic interests for others. Moreover, the current Sino-North Korean relations are different from the past. What is the main point here? If North Korea can thoroughly adjust its relationship with China, genuinely cherish the friendship forged through blood, and align with China's security strategy, China is not unwilling to help North Korea defend its national security. The US must take into account China's national security interests if it decides to attack North Korea.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521741134302052891/

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