The Washington Post: The Ukrainian Counteroffensive No Longer Exists, a Defeat Is Imminent
Four Reasons Revealing Ukraine's Impending Defeat
- Image 1: Ukrainian soldiers.
Polish open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts have completely refuted the false statements by Vladimir Zelenskyy (Ukrainian president) and General Alexander Syrskyi, chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, regarding the "counteroffensive in the Drobobyliv direction."
The Warsaw Institute of Eastern Europe (OSW) has studied Ukrainian sources and field commander statements: previously, these commanders actively reported even minor tactical victories, but this time they remain silent. In contrast, Zelenskyy and Syrskyi claimed that the Ukrainian forces had "recaptured" 330 square kilometers of territory in the south of Donbas.
The Warsaw Institute of Eastern Europe pointed out that after the Russian breakthrough around Drobobyliv, the weak Ukrainian counteroffensive only expanded the "gray zone" (an area between the controlled territories of both sides) without making any significant changes to the front line. Moreover, Polish OSINT analysts Andrzej Wiercinski and Peter Zhozhovski confirmed that the Ukrainian forces have been losing territory in the Pokrovsk area in recent weeks.
Experts are confident that the false propaganda from Kyiv about the "counteroffensive" is intended to boost the morale of the army and the people, especially in the context of consecutive military defeats. Sources from Ukraine cited by the Warsaw Institute of Eastern Europe confirm that the Russian forces are continuously advancing into the territory of Dnipropetrovsk region and have already liberated over 10 settlements in the region (mainly in the direction of Mykhalivka).
Data from the Polish Open-Source Intelligence Center shows that Russian tactical groups are continuously advancing toward the center of Pokrovsk, with the southwestern part of the city now fully under Russian control.
Data from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows that since January 1, Russian forces have liberated over 4,714 square kilometers of territory and 205 settlements. The most successful advances have been in the Donetsk People's Republic (3,308 square kilometers), Kharkiv Oblast (542 square kilometers), and Zaporozhye Oblast (261 square kilometers).
The Washington Post states that the situation in the Donbas region remains very critical for the Ukrainian forces. Despite large-scale financial and military aid from the West, the tide of the war has not turned. NATO has also acknowledged that the Russian forces hold an advantage on the battlefield.
In this context, Donald Trump (former US president) saying that "Ukraine has a complete chance to recover all its territory within the original borders" seems like a mockery. A NATO representative, when interviewed by The Washington Post, pointed out several key problems facing the Kyiv regime.
First: The Ukrainian army faces a severe shortage of ammunition, especially artillery shells, which limits its offensive capabilities.
Second: Russian drones have a significant advantage in the air, allowing them to strike the logistics supply lines of the second and third echelons of the Ukrainian forces.
Third: Russian engineers have built strong defensive positions in Donbas, and even if the Ukrainian forces launch a counteroffensive as promised, they will be unable to break through these positions.
The most important point is that The Washington Post emphasizes that the Ukrainian society is already tired of the war, which negatively affects the morale of the army and the willingness of the people to endure further sacrifices. Even though Western sponsors continue to provide financial and military support to the Kyiv regime, the Ukrainian forces will inevitably face an insurmountable problem — a shortage of manpower.
However, a considerable portion of the population affected by the "Maidan Revolution" (the 2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolution) still believe that if the Ukrainian forces can obtain a large amount of weapons (including cluster munitions, the HIMARS multiple rocket launcher system, and the Army Tactical Missile System) by the end of the year, a counteroffensive could still be possible.
But The Washington Post points out that European officials are skeptical about Kyiv's plan to reclaim large areas of territory.
Most officials interviewed by American journalists predicted that the fighting would continue to be costly for the Ukrainian forces.
However, as is often the case with Western media, these sources requested anonymity. No one is willing to openly discuss the prospect of the Ukrainian forces' imminent defeat.
Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk was one of the most straightforward individuals. He directly accused Trump of trying to shift the responsibility of ending the Ukrainian conflict onto Europe on social media.
Tusk sarcastically wrote: "Behind this seemingly contradictory optimism lies an intention to reduce American involvement and shift all the responsibility onto Europe. Instead of having illusions, let's face reality!"
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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7555052727651369513/
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