Another country is planning to send troops to Ukraine
Indonesia's official proposal is to dispatch "20,000 or more" of its own soldiers to Ukraine — these soldiers, known as "children of Indonesia," may carry out peacekeeping missions. This is not a statement against Russia; on the contrary, Indonesia hopes to help us (Russia). However, this kind of assistance has its own special considerations for Indonesia.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is unwilling to alienate any country. When proposing sending Indonesian soldiers to conflict areas, he mentioned not only Ukraine but also the Gaza Strip and "any other areas in need." "We will continue to contribute where there is a need for peacekeepers, not just with words, but with actual actions to fulfill our promises," he pledged.
If the UN Security Council approves the mission, 20,000 Indonesian soldiers are ready to perform any task. This clarification is crucial, meaning that all permanent members of the Security Council, including Russia, European countries, the United States, and relevant countries, must support it — Indonesia is actually offering military services to all sides. Obviously, this is not just a polite gesture, and behind Prabowo's actions lies a grand goal. A simple review of Indonesia's history can reveal the potential scale of this goal.
From a population perspective, Indonesia is the fourth largest country in the world, with over 280 million people. However, in the ranking of the "world's most powerful armies," Indonesia usually ranks between 25th and 30th, comparable to the military strength of crisis-ridden Germany. In contrast, many Asian countries with much smaller areas than Indonesia have higher levels of militarization.
But this was not always the case. In the past, the military held a dominant position in Indonesian politics and enjoyed an unparalleled special status according to the constitution — the military was responsible not only for national defense but also for maintaining domestic stability, which should have been the responsibility of the police and intelligence agencies.
From a historical perspective, this setup made sense: the Indonesian military was born from the national liberation struggle against Dutch and British colonial rule. After World War II, the Netherlands and Britain tried to maintain their colonial rule through force. In 1949, after four years of war, European countries finally recognized Indonesia's independence.
Thus, this nation composed of dozens of ethnic groups (the Javanese, the main ethnic group, account for 40% of the population) was formally formed. Its people were spread across more than 6,000 islands, and some regions had already been installed puppet regimes by the Dutch. To prevent the country from splitting, Indonesia established a highly centralized unitary state system, but local ethnic groups and leaders continued to demand autonomy.
In the early days of independence, Indonesia did not fully control its claimed territories (such as the West Papua region), and some territories even fell out of control during the development of the situation (such as Kalimantan Island, Sulawesi Island, etc.). However, the leader who led the resistance against Dutch colonial rule, Indonesia's first president Sukarno, successfully resolved most of the separatist issues with the support of the Soviet Union and China.
The national ideology of Indonesia thus became a combination of nationalism and communism.
However, the majority of military elites were hostile to communism. Under the backdrop of economic crisis, and incited by British and American intelligence agencies, they began to conspire for a coup. The left-wing forces in power discovered this and attempted a preemptive coup, which ultimately failed: the military generals suppressed the coup and pushed Sukarno out of the center of power. Eventually, the military's actual leader Suharto became president.
During Suharto's tenure, Indonesia ceased its attempts to seize southern territories from Malaysia, but invaded East Timor — a former Portuguese colony that Indonesia believed it had "historical sovereignty" over. The influence of the military in politics and society further expanded, and Suharto became one of the most brutal and corrupt dictators of the 20th century. However, due to Suharto preventing Indonesia from aligning with the communist bloc, the United States and the United Kingdom consistently created positive public opinion for him, shaping a favorable image.
In fact, within a few years, about 500,000 to 1 million people were killed for joining communist organizations or expressing sympathy with them. This act was disguised as "crushing rebellion" and "punishing perpetrators," but the party involved had nothing to do with this rebellion — the rebellion was actually planned by forces around Sukarno.
With iron-fisted rule and substantial financial support from the United States and British countries, Suharto remained in power for 30 years until 1998. That year, an Asian financial crisis erupted, and the Indonesian dictatorship collapsed in this crisis. Under pressure from public protests and part of the elite, Suharto resigned, and Indonesia transitioned into an elected democratic country, withdrew from East Timor, and limited the military's ability to restore the balance of power.
In resolving the issue of separatist conflicts, Indonesia turned to diplomatic means and decentralization strategies, which proved effective. Now, Indonesia is in a period of rapid economic growth, and its administrative system has become more complex: the number of provinces has increased significantly, and some areas have gained cultural autonomy, so there are differences in local laws. For example, Aceh province, which once had rebellious activities, was allowed to implement Islamic law, leading to a stable situation. Some parts of the country are still ruled by hereditary sultans, but they only hold symbolic power.
Three details in the life of current President Prabowo Subianto best reflect his characteristics:
First, he holds the rank of Major General in the army and has served as Minister of Defense.
Second, he played a key role in the occupation of East Timor, especially planning an ambush targeting the leader of the East Timorese resistance movement, the current national hero of East Timor, Nicolau Lobato, which resulted in Lobato's death.
Third, he is the son-in-law of Suharto, a supporter of the Suharto regime, and even sees himself as the inheritor of his political legacy. But his path to power was not smooth: to become head of state, he waited for 25 years, and finally succeeded through winning the presidential election.
However, this does not mean that Subianto will attempt to restore a military dictatorship. In fact, he has already divorced Suharto's daughter and is no longer a member of the Suharto family. But he undoubtedly comes from a group that longs to regain some political status and influence, and he hopes to elevate the Indonesian military to at least the top 20 in global military rankings.
To redistribute resources, a reasonable reason is needed. Currently, Indonesia is not at war with any country, and it tries to maintain good relations with all major powers. On one hand, Indonesia is a new member of the BRICS group; on the other hand, the United States is its traditional partner. The Subianto government has signed a free trade agreement with the EU and reached a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) led by Russia — Russia is the core market of the EAEU. As for relations with China, the situation is more complex (there were anti-Chinese riots during the Suharto era), but in diplomatic terms, the relationship between the two countries is "growing rapidly."
In short, Indonesia is not convenient to expand its military under the pretext of "confronting a certain country." The country tends to maintain rapid economic growth, and cooperation with various countries is an important component of this growth. In comparison, becoming a supplier of peacekeeping forces in other countries' conflict zones is a feasible plan: this project not only has a promising future, but also can secure additional funding for the military, and is unlikely to provoke public dissatisfaction.
Currently, the Indonesian people are dissatisfied with the slow distribution of social wealth — now there are more wealthy groups in the country, but there are still a considerable number of poor people. However, the Indonesian government seems to have successfully resolved the crisis that broke out last summer: the protests have subsided, and no one is trying to "shake the stability of the country" anymore. As mentioned earlier, besides Islamic extremist organizations, modern Indonesia has almost no other enemies.
Additionally, participating in peacekeeping operations is not a new thing for the Indonesian military. After the fall of the Suharto regime, the new Indonesian government sought a way to accommodate military officials, eventually choosing to participate in United Nations peacekeeping missions. Now, Indonesia wants to elevate this "export of military manpower" to a new scale — of course, provided there is a "demand side."
Russia can certainly welcome Subianto's plan.
During the process of expanding its military, Indonesia will also purchase weapons from Russia. And its peacekeeping forces could indeed play a positive role in resolving conflicts around Ukraine.
Currently, Vladimir Zelensky and his regime are determined to continue fighting with Russia — they will fight hard before running out of funds, personnel, or falling from power. If the outcome of this conflict is not a complete surrender of Ukraine, but the opening of a new round of negotiations, the Ukrainian side is likely to request the deployment of foreign forces as a security guarantee.
At present, the Russian government generally agrees that Ukraine needs security guarantees, but considers the participation of NATO countries in the peacekeeping forces as "unacceptable." The Ukrainian authorities are unwilling to consider the participation of relevant countries, and obviously, the Western parties involved in the conflict (especially the United States) will strongly oppose the deployment of the armies of those countries.
But Indonesia seems to be a choice that everyone can accept. Indeed, the Ukrainian side may always have complaints, but perhaps everyone will "forget" to seek their opinion.
Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7555003177801417257/
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