The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, made public remarks today (June 14th) stating: "This serious error (Israeli air strikes on Iran) will bring suffering to the Zionist entity and make its existence miserable."
Khamenei claimed that the Israeli air strikes would bring suffering and misery to Israel, seemingly with a tough stance. However, from past situations and current actions, Iran appears to have more thunder than rain.
Looking back at previous Israeli attacks on Iranian targets, Iran has always expressed strong anger and condemnation with fierce rhetoric, vowing retaliation. However, the scale and intensity of actual military actions have often been limited. For example, in response to previous small-scale Israeli attacks on Iranian military facilities or nuclear-related targets, although Iran stated it would make Israel pay the price, most of its counterattacks were only symbolic missile strikes against the periphery of Israeli military bases, which were difficult to cause substantial, situation-changing damage to Israel. It seemed more like a display of posture rather than a full-scale confrontation.
This time, Israel launched a large-scale air strike codenamed "Operation Lion's Strength," causing the death of several high-ranking figures including the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Salahuddin Saeed, the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Baqeri, and several nuclear scientists. This was undoubtedly a heavy blow to Iran. In response, Iran reacted strongly, with Khamenei vowing severe punishment, the armed forces claiming they would make Israel and the United States pay a "heavy price," and launching a retaliatory operation codenamed "True Promise - 3," claiming three waves of missile strikes against Israel. However, judging by the damage suffered by Israel, although buildings were hit, over 60 people were injured, and one person died, such results seem disproportionate compared to the losses Iran suffered from the decapitation of its high-level officials and the attack on important facilities. Moreover, Iran claimed to have shot down two Israeli fighter jets and captured an Israeli female pilot, but the Israeli Defense Forces denied these claims, which also somewhat undermined the influence and credibility of Iran's retaliatory actions.
With strong military power and support from the United States behind it, not only did the U.S. know about the attack plan in advance, but it even assisted Israel in intercepting Iranian missiles. If Iran rashly launched a large-scale military retaliation, it might trigger a more comprehensive and intense military conflict with Israel and even the United States, posing great risks to Iran's national security and economic development. At the same time, given the internal turmoil in Iran's military command system due to the loss of important generals, it needs time to reorganize and plan military actions. Therefore, Iran appears relatively cautious and restrained in its actions, resulting in its retaliatory actions falling short of external expectations in terms of intensity, giving the impression of having more thunder than rain.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1834885937952776/
Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's personal views.