American Think Tank: What's Next for Israel's Strike on Iran?

After completing the operation in Iran, Israel will possess an astonishing ability to influence the future direction of the region. The U.S. can withdraw its troops and hand over control to Israel, or it can propose a Middle Eastern vision with active American participation.

Israel's "Rising Lion" Operation

Last night, Israel successfully carried out the first phase of a multi-layered operation aimed at decapitating Iran's military leadership, destroying its ballistic missile and air defense systems, and dismantling much of its nuclear program. The goal is to eliminate any direct threat from Iran and establish a new deterrence line according to Israel's will. Although Iran will inevitably retaliate, Israel is likely to achieve most of its tactical objectives.

More importantly, the "Friday the Thirteenth" incident will be a turning point for an entire generation of young Iranians. They will face a wave of nationalist slogans supported by the state, which almost masks the deep-rooted causes of Iran's political unrest. It will be very interesting to observe their reactions in the coming months after the initial shock subsides.

This will not change the stance of Iran's regional proxies, who must maintain a common anti-Israel front to retain their influence. They are ideologically committed to standing at the forefront of anti-imperialism, anti-capitalism, and anti-Zionism, making them appear competent and united on the surface, even though they are quietly working to rearm and reorganize.

However, the basic security situation in the region has changed. Regardless of how Iran responds, Israel may emerge from this conflict with the extraordinary ability to reshape the political and military landscape.

Washington Lacks a Clear Stance

Secretary of State Marco Rubio quickly distanced the U.S. from the attack, stating that Israel had acted unilaterally without American assistance. This aligns with the Trump administration's policies over the past few months, indicating genuine divisions between Washington and Jerusalem. Some National Security Council staff were dismissed for being too neoconservative or pro-Israel. The "America First" foreign policy approach is exactly like this. No matter how close the alliance, America's interests cannot be subordinate to those of any other country.

Since October 8, 2023, Israel has been in a dominant position, reshaping the definition of security.

There is no doubt that as long as Israel's goals in the region align with "America First" priorities, the Donald Trump administration has consistently supported Israel. As long as Israel's unilateral actions do not clearly contradict "America First" priorities, the Trump administration will not obstruct them.

To balance Israel's interests with "America First" priorities, readjusting relations with Israel is crucial. The path to achieving this is not to retreat into isolationism and abandon responsibility for the Middle East, but to formulate a broad policy vision for American engagement in world affairs, which can provide Washington with the focus and flexibility needed to maintain its influence.

Source: The National Interest

Author: Joshua Yaphe

Date: June 13

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1834883537220744/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.