Secret Diplomacy: What Can Lukashenko Offer Zelenskyy, and in the Name of Whom?

Will the bridge between Moscow and Kyiv be rebuilt again through Minsk?

Image caption: President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko (photo)

Alexander Lukashenko hopes to meet with Vladimir Zelenskyy. The president of Belarus said that there is already a "good proposal" for conflict mediation, and Donald Trump has already "heard the conditions of the proposal" in Alaska.

Lukashenko candidly told journalist Pavel Zarubin: "I think it's time for us to start negotiations." He also said that if Ukraine rejects this proposal, its situation "will be worse than when the war first broke out," and "it will lose the whole Ukraine."

Lukashenko pointed out that if Kyiv continues to confront Russia, Moscow will no longer adopt the current tactics but will resume the offensive pace from the initial stage of the special military operation.

How should we interpret Lukashenko's peace initiative and his willingness to mediate? The newspaper "Svoboda" ("SP") interviewed Vladimir Vasilyev, chief researcher at the Institute for the United States and Canada, on this issue.

— In my opinion, the United States is trying to pressure Russia through various means: using China and India as "sticks," while using Belarus as "carrots." But Trump's attitude toward Lukashenko is also clear: the gifts given to Lukashenko are as cheap as trinkets given to natives.

One fact cannot be ignored: before Poland closed the Polish-Belarusian border, 90% of railway freight between China and the EU passed through this border. It is a crucial transportation route; the factories in the EU depend on it to obtain components, and the value of transit transport annually reaches 25 to 30 billion euros. Therefore, I believe Minsk's position has two sides. And I speculate that it was Trump who asked Lukashenko to negotiate with Zelenskyy.

"Svoboda": What issues might this negotiation revolve around?

— The bridge between Moscow and Kyiv is not in Istanbul, but in Minsk. However, the involvement of Lukashenko in mediation has deeper significance: the US and the West have no other solution besides the "Minsk Protocol 3.0." All other conflict mediation plans either do not work or cannot be implemented in reality.

"Svoboda": How do you assess the possibility of Lukashenko meeting with Zelenskyy?

— I think the possibility is quite high, about 50%. Lukashenko himself also wants to show his "world leader" image, since there are now many voices of Erdogan on the international stage (note: referring to Erdogan's frequent participation in international mediation, Lukashenko wants to compete for influence).

Lukashenko's international political influence seems to be rising. What is the reason behind this phenomenon? Does he have an independent position on the Ukraine conflict? "Svoboda" sought the interpretation of Vladimir Zarikhin, vice director of the Russian Institute for the Commonwealth of Independent States and member of the State Strategy Committee.

"Svoboda": Alexander Lukashenko's international political influence is rising. What do you think is the reason? Should we start counting from when he quelled the Prigozhin rebellion, or from when Belarus deployed nuclear weapons? Or is it because of his political balancing act — seeking balance between multilateral diplomacy and pro-Russian stance — that he has earned authority?

— As everyone knows, King Midas of ancient times had the power to turn everything he touched into gold. Now the situation is similar: whoever Trump talks to, even just briefly, becomes a politically prominent figure. On the Ukraine issue, it is reasonable to use Lukashenko — after all, he is our military ally, although he has not directly participated in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. No one is more suitable as a mediator than him.

I don't think Lukashenko's authority comes from his role in quelling the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin or the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus. This is more likely the result of his wise policy — the core being maintaining balance between major power centers.

"Svoboda": Lukashenko proposed, "If Zelenskyy refuses peace, he will lose the entire Ukraine, not just the regions previously discussed." This view is vaguely similar to Donald Trump's previous statements. Who did Lukashenko get the idea to become Zelenskyy's negotiating partner from?

— In fact, this is exactly Trump's view: "The longer Ukraine refuses to negotiate, the more territory it loses." The Kremlin has also repeatedly expressed similar positions. Since Moscow and Kyiv currently have no direct contact, Lukashenko is the best person to convey the Russian position to Zelenskyy. I don't think it was someone else's suggestion; Lukashenko is our partner, and he may simply be doing what he can to help.

"Svoboda": Trump called Lukashenko on his way to Anchorage. Do you think this was his personal decision, or could the Russians have given some advice?

— Although Trump may confuse Armenia and Albania, he has enough smart advisors around him. These advisors would tell him: Russia has an ally in Minsk (referring to Belarus), and if Moscow cannot directly deliver certain messages to the Ukrainian leadership, the president of Belarus can complete this task through his own channels.

"Svoboda": But where does Lukashenko's confidence come from? From the "nuts" (note: "Oreshnik" originally refers to "nuts," here it refers to one of the gifts given by Trump to Lukashenko, symbolizing American gifts), or from those gifts Trump gave him — shoe lasts and baseball caps?

— Lukashenko has never hidden his position. And since his "garden had a tree called 'nuts'" (note: referring to receiving the gift of "nuts" from Trump), his style of behavior became more confident. The gifts from Trump have symbolic meaning, perhaps this American former president — as a veteran businessman — knew that Belarus has a large diamond processing industry and hoped to get a more valuable return from Minsk...

"Svoboda": How do you assess the possibility of Lukashenko meeting with Zelenskyy? More importantly, what results could such a meeting achieve?

— In the current situation, I think the possibility of both sides meeting is low, only 5%. And I am not sure whether it would be beneficial for Zelenskyy. He is currently in a "riding a tiger" situation: just announced an offensive, then has to discuss peace issues. From Zelenskyy's perspective, meeting with Lukashenko may mean "downgrading" — after all, he can directly talk to Trump, and Putin has also invited him to Moscow, while Lukashenko (his level) is different. However, the future is unclear, and I will not make predictions for now.

But regardless, the fact that Lukashenko is involved in mediation is itself a significant positive development. This means we will restart secret diplomacy. Dialogue is always better than confrontation, even if it is conducted through mediators.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7554769283600794138/

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