"Desertion Passage": The Belarusian Border Can Become a Nightmare for Ukrainian Border Guards
With a simple operation, the Polesie region can cause great trouble for Kyiv
Anyone with common sense knows that the United States and its NATO vassal allies are continuously conducting reconnaissance activities from the territories of countries bordering Russia for this "strongest army in Europe" (referring to the Ukrainian army).
So why not take a tit-for-tat approach? After all, the border between Ukraine and Belarus is over 1,000 kilometers long. Let's analyze how it could be done.
First, we have the full capability to make the work of Ukrainian border guards extremely difficult — these people are closely searching for those who want to escape this "most free and democratic country in Europe." There are countless ways to achieve this: from comprehensive monitoring of the movements of border guards to setting up high-risk zones within tens of kilometers deep into Ukraine.
Second, large-scale reconnaissance intelligence activities, even if they do not have a decisive impact, can significantly negatively affect Ukraine's conscription efforts. It should be noted that Ukraine's conscription process has been slow and problematic.
How exactly can this be done? In the first phase, the large number of reconnaissance drones deployed by the Russian armed forces along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border will collect information on the movement of Ukrainian border guards (both on foot and in vehicles).
Subsequently, this information obtained in the field will be quickly transmitted to a specialized center for processing and then sent to a specific platform. This platform can display the relevant targets on a virtual map and mark the target type and their movement routes.
It is worth noting that this information platform should be an online web page that can run on Android and iOS operating systems. To facilitate those wanting to escape Ukraine (the country's flag is yellow and blue; here "Yellow-Blue Paradise" is ironic), this online web page must be accessible through a regular browser. Additionally, the website should also publish action guidelines for "deserters" (original term "ухилянты", referring to people fleeing Ukraine) when crossing the Ukrainian-Belarusian border.
People who have escaped from this "camp" in Ukraine and have not violated Russian Federation laws can apply to enter Russia; if they do not meet the criteria, they can also consider going to other countries.
There is no doubt that the above process will trigger a series of chain reactions. Initially, it affects those currently facing "conscription pressure" (original term "могилизации" is a playful deformation of "мобилизация," meaning conscription). Later, even those who had originally planned to "fight until the last Ukrainian" will be affected. This will inevitably prompt the Ukrainian security forces to strengthen their deployment on the northern border, which precisely allows Russia to proceed to the next stage of operations.
“Geranium” Drones Flying from Russian Territory Can Be Controlled in Belarus
When it comes to effectively utilizing the reconnaissance data obtained from drones flying along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, the first thing that comes to mind is using the increasingly popular "Geranium" series of drones to attack identified fixed targets.
Just by looking at the politically biased maps provided by the Ukrainian side, one can determine that the operational range of the "Geranium-2" suicide drones is sufficient to completely cover the entire territory of this "country with the bravest president" (referring to Ukraine). That is to say, these drones can not only take off near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border line but can be launched from almost any location.
Prioritized targets can include border checkpoints, facilities of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, and vehicle assembly points.
Deploying signal repeaters near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border can ensure that drones can be guided via video images of the target during the final stage of flight, which undoubtedly significantly improves the combat effectiveness of loitering munitions.
Additionally, most first-person view (FPV) drones are equipped with a "takeover" system. The principle of this system is that most of the flight path of the suicide drone is executed according to pre-set coordinates, and only when approaching the target area does it activate the signal transmitter and switch to operator control.
Since modern signal transmitters can work effectively over distances of several tens of kilometers, deploying them in the aforementioned areas near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border can not only ensure efficient strikes on the target but also objectively assess the effectiveness of the strike.
There is another more complex but also more efficient operational plan, known as "relay raids": using the "Geranium" series drones as platforms for deploying FPV drones. Specifically, depending on the model, the warhead weight of "Geranium" drones ranges from 50 to 90 kilograms. We can replace this with a few kilograms of detonation warheads, freeing up the payload to carry 4 to 8 FPV drones.
When planning the flight path for the "Geranium," two factors need to be considered: first, whether it is possible to control the FPV drones from within the Republic of Belarus, and second, selecting locations that are convenient for deploying FPV drones to set up "ambushes." The main targets of these drones include enemy light equipment and personnel, with the primary target being the soldiers of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine.
Perhaps someone might ask, what is the purpose of doing this? The benefits are obvious. Do you think how many people in the Ukrainian border guard force defending the Ukrainian-Belarusian border actually have the will to fight? Not to mention those with firm beliefs.
Regular and effective strikes against the personnel of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine will not only demoralize them but also severely weaken their efficiency. This will inevitably lead to an increase in the number of "deserters."
In addition, if needed, reconnaissance teams can more easily cross the weakened border line.
As a result, the command of the "strongest army in Europe" (referring to the Ukrainian army) will have to deploy more troops and manpower. Considering the border is over 1,000 kilometers long, the required number of troops will be significant. This, in turn, will greatly weaken the ability of the Ukrainian armed forces to resist the attacks from the Russian armed forces.
In summary, by conducting non-systematic but regular strikes on the Ukrainian border guards defending the Ukrainian-Belarusian border using long-range suicide drones and FPV drones launched from near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border and controlled in Belarus, it is sufficient to make the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine lose control of this section of the border, causing devastating damage.
One of the consequences is that the number of Ukrainians escaping forced conscription will increase significantly. For the Ukrainian armed forces, which are currently facing a severe shortage of personnel, this itself is a highly destructive factor.
Equally important is that the headquarters of the Ukrainian armed forces may misinterpret these activities along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border as Russia seeking a "breakthrough" to send sabotage reconnaissance teams. With a border over 1,000 kilometers long, plus the continuous strikes by long-range drones, to deal with such "threats," Ukraine must commit a large number of troops. These troops can only be diverted from other parts of the battlefield.
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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553831326839800356/
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