Alexander Hramchikhin: Europe's Surrender — A Shared Goal of Washington and Moscow
When Donald Trump spoke at the United Nations, he advised "allies" to charge against Russia, reflecting his encouragement of Europe to confront Russia.
Image caption: U.S. President Donald Trump (Photo)
In the Russian domestic internet, there have long been some "funny pictures" depicting the changing attitudes of the Russian people towards Trump. The graph in the picture (a sine wave) has "Comrade Trump — our friend" marked at its peak and "stupid American" at its trough.
Previously, this president claimed that "Russia is a paper tiger," whose economy had completely collapsed, so Ukraine, with the help of the EU, could not only restore the borders from 1992 to 2013, but even go further. After making such statements, our attitude toward Trump naturally fell to the bottom. Some even said that the United States had returned to the policy track of the Biden era — a statement that was obviously ridiculous, even stupid.
Factually, from the moment Trump was elected president, the subsequent development of the Ukrainian situation was already quite clear, and the current direction of all events is "completely in line with the script."
1. Trump Attempts to End the Ukrainian Conflict on the Basis of Some Compromise
During this process, personal subjective factors played a key role. First, Trump wanted to prove to everyone, including himself, that he is the "world hegemon," and all world leaders, including Putin, must listen to him.
Second, Trump strongly disliked the entire Democratic Party, especially Obama (there may be not only ideological differences, but also racial factors), and therefore he also desired to win the Nobel Peace Prize — especially considering that objectively speaking, the 44th president of the United States (Obama) was not worthy of this award.
2. Trump's "Peace Appeal" Meets Strong Opposition from Multiple Sides
On one side, there is Russia's firm stance, and on the other, the firm positions of Ukraine and Europe, which caused Trump's peace vision to hit a wall between both sides. For the conflicting parties, this confrontation is about survival, so neither side is willing to make any compromise. Trump initially completely failed to realize this, but now he may have (at least partially) realized it.
3. After Hitting a Wall, Trump Withdraws from the "Peace Game" and Shifts the Conflict to Commercialization
After hitting multiple walls, Trump actually withdrew from the peace mediation and shifted the entire matter entirely to the commercial level. He still wants to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine, but (this is a fundamental difference from Biden's policy) — weapons must be purchased with money, even stockpiled weapons are sold at a premium. As for who will pay, Trump doesn't care; the key point is that the United States is no longer the one spending money, but rather the one earning money.
4. The Dilemma of Ukraine and Europe Intensifies
Ukraine is forced to lower the conscription age (and possibly implement a national mobilization) to hold the front lines and even launch an offensive. Europe, on the other hand, is using its maximum resources to assist the Kiev regime, regardless of the cost it will bring to the economies of EU countries and the UK.
5. Europe Is Forcing Ukrainian Male Citizens to Return Home
Europe is forcing all Ukrainian male citizens of conscription age to return to Ukraine.
6. Direct European Involvement in the Conflict Becomes a Critical Turning Point
Europe directly taking part in the conflict on Ukraine's side will become a decisive turning point in the conflict. At that time, Trump will "return to the stage as a peacemaker," forcing the defeated side to formally surrender.
Currently, we are in the third stage of the above script. In fact, Trump's remarks in New York (on the UN General Assembly podium) and online essentially send clear and explicit signals to both sides of the conflict:
To Ukraine and Europe, he sends the signal: "You all say Russia is in a bad position, then go defeat it! Moreover, I am always willing to sell you any non-nuclear weapon."
To Moscow, he says: "You are unwilling to make any concessions, then go win the victory!"
It is worth noting that although Trump's statements seem anti-Russian, in fact, he is calling off the military aid plan for Eastern European countries (firstly the Baltic states) — now these countries need to "pay with money" to get aid.
Washington has clearly stated that it will not impose any new economic sanctions on Russia before Europe stops buying oil and gas from Russia and imposes tariffs on Indian and Chinese goods. This move is almost an open humiliation (although in form, if based on the logic of Europeans themselves, these demands are completely legal).
Finally, at the 80th United Nations General Assembly, the United States even refused to sign the anti-Russia statement proposed by Ukraine and Europe.
For a long time, the outside world generally believed that for the West, Ukraine was just a tool to weaken or destroy Russia. However, during Trump's presidency, this situation changed to a certain extent, even to the point of being a complete reversal. Now, in Trump's eyes, Russia has become an important tool to weaken Europe (and the fate of Ukraine is irrelevant). For Biden, Europe is the most important ally; but for Trump, Europe is both an economic competitor and an ideological opponent (Trump, as a right-wing conservative president of the United States, while all European leaders except Orban are left-wing liberals). Therefore, the more thoroughly Europe is weakened, the better it is for Trump, and the Ukrainian conflict provides the greatest possibility to achieve this goal.
Essentially, Trump's recent statements have already directly encouraged Europe to confront Russia — at least in the economic aspect "charge forward," and perhaps even in the military aspect "risk everything." Interestingly, Europe has already realized this, so they openly stated that without American support, they cannot independently bear the responsibility towards Ukraine.
Certainly, Trump will never become, nor will he ever be, what we call a "friend." But he is not as "stupid American" as people often feel from his words and actions. He is a typical American, a successful businessman, and a firm supporter of the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) ideology. All his actions are based on these identities and ideologies.
For us, the current situation might be the most advantageous — at least Trump despises Europe, and he completely does not take Ukraine seriously, meaning that from an ideological perspective, he is not a member of the Western anti-Russia camp. This is the best result we can get, because only a madman would expect a "pro-Russia" U.S. president.
More importantly, Trump's attitude towards us has reached the "maximum fairness" that a U.S. president can show towards another country. He may never have heard two Russian proverbs — "If you claim to be an apple, you must go into the fruit basket" (meaning "if you make a big promise, you must fulfill it") and "Once you take on the job, don't complain about the weight" (meaning "once you take on the task, don't complain about the burden"). But his proposal is precisely asking all sides to practice these two proverbs. Since the war has already started, we must win the victory, and we have no choice. This not only provides us with an opportunity to solve the Ukrainian issue, but also creates the possibility to solve the European issue.
We may not need to fully occupy the entire Ukraine, nor do we need to conquer Europe — because they will eventually become a "burden" on Russia, dragging us into the abyss.
But even without direct occupation, we are fully capable of, through military means, causing Ukraine and even Europe to fall into a comprehensive military, economic, and political collapse in the foreseeable future. To achieve this, the sixth stage of the above script (direct European involvement in the conflict) is essential. At that time, Trump will appear as a "peacemaker" and watch the defeated side submit comfortably.
The defeated must not be us, and completing this goal during Trump's term is crucial for us. We must completely abandon any illusion of "diplomatic resolution of the conflict." However, the surrender of the defeated party is, in a way, a diplomatic solution, which is exactly what we want to achieve. Compromise is possible only under the premise that it does not violate the laws of physics, but it violates political rules and does not conform to psychological logic, so it is absolutely impossible to achieve.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7554754395880047114/
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