Why a New War Between Israel and Iran Is Inevitable

Why a New War Between Israel and Iran Is Inevitable

Author: Alexander Timoshin

Both Iran and Israel claim to have won the war that broke out in June. However, many signs indicate that neither country has achieved any victory. Why is a new conflict imminent? When will it erupt? And how are the militaries of both countries preparing for it?

Israel launched its war against Iran under the most favorable conditions. It had the element of surprise, a high-tech air force, agents and saboteurs stationed inside Iran, active U.S. support, and the support of other countries that allowed Israel to use their airspace.

From an efficiency perspective, Israel's operation was perfect. All the munitions hit their targets, and Iran's air defense system was almost destroyed. Israel only lost a few drones, with no loss of aircraft or pilots. The damage Israel inflicted on Iran far exceeded the damage Iran caused to Israel.

Israel did not win, Iran suffered a defeat

But what disappointed the Israelis was that their goals were not achieved. Contrary to the propaganda, satellite images show that Iran has at least moved part of the uranium from the Fordow plant. There is no evidence that the uranium remained underground, nor any specific data on losses — the Iranians wisely do not disclose any relevant information. If the uranium storage facilities had been destroyed, radiation leaks should have been detected in the atmosphere, but none were found.

In addition, Iran has terminated its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and will continue enriching uranium in the future. U.S. intelligence agencies believe that the main components of Iran's nuclear program were not destroyed, and the Iranian political regime remains stable.

Therefore, Israel did not achieve any of the goals it claimed when it started the war, which instead led Iran to refuse to negotiate in the future. At the same time, the U.S. stance indicates that it does not want to actively fight for Israel — the U.S. airstrikes had a clear demonstration nature, aiming only to show the Israeli lobbying groups in the United States that the U.S. was not standing by and to pressure Iran into a ceasefire.

This is not a failure for Israel — it gained operational experience and suffered minimal losses — but it is also certainly not a victory. In addition to failing to achieve the goals of the war, the Israelis also saw the limits of their own capabilities. If they continue to engage in missile exchanges, they may face a war of attrition, and due to their inability to replenish the ammunition for their air defense systems and high-precision weapons, they could collapse within three months. Their spy network would also be destroyed.

However, the outcome of the war was undoubtedly a defeat for Iran — the situation of the Iranians after the war is worse than before the war. Israel's attack showed the world the true military strength of Iran. Before the war, Iran appeared much stronger than after the war, and its political position was also shaken.

When Israel actually defeated Hezbollah in Lebanon, Tehran missed the first opportunity for retaliation. Then, when the Bashar al-Assad regime fell in Syria, it again missed the chance. The only remaining card was Iran's own military strength, which has now been destroyed as well.

The domestic situation in Iran is similar — Ayatollah Khamenei can claim repeatedly that he has defeated Israel and the United States, but the people know the truth and will make comparisons. Years of propaganda about their greatness and strength have been proven to be lies. All of this will bring serious political consequences for Iran.

Since Israel's goals were not achieved and Iran suffered major humiliation — the situation before the war has not been resolved. This means that a new war is just a matter of time.

What Will Iran and Israel Do Next

The idea that Iran might attack Israel is absurd — or perhaps it is part of Israel's military propaganda. Iran's current situation does not allow it to do so. It has no decent air force, and although its missiles can reach Israel, most of them are intercepted. The loyalty of the public to the regime has also been shaken. Attacking Israel in this situation, even technically, would be meaningless.

Furthermore, Iran's asymmetric warfare tools against Israel, namely Hezbollah, have also been exhausted. Now, the Iranians have no one or anything left to conduct their traditional semi-guerrilla operations.

What Iran will definitely do, however, is prepare for Israel's next invasion. First, this will be reflected in improving its missile arsenal.

Iran is likely to reorganize and re-equip its missile forces to more effectively break through Israel's air defense system. The goal is to have the capability to wage a war of attrition, which Israel cannot afford.

Second, continuing uranium enrichment. According to the previous Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran had the right to enrich 300 kilograms of uranium to 3.7%. Later, the U.S. withdrew from the agreement, and Iran lifted all restrictions. According to data from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in early February 2025, the amount of enriched uranium Iran has produced is as follows: 2,927 kilograms enriched to 2%, 3,655 kilograms enriched to 5%, 606.8 kilograms enriched to 20%, and 274.8 kilograms enriched to 60%.

The main storage facilities are located at the Fordow base, including 166.6 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. These uranum is likely to have been completely moved out. At least 409 kilograms of enriched uranium's whereabouts are now unknown, as the IAEA can no longer monitor them. Iran must now secretly repair the Fordow base and continue its previous work to stockpile materials for making nuclear bombs.

Perhaps during this process, the Iranians will maintain a "threshold" status, not producing or assembling nuclear weapons, in order to use them for diplomatic pressure.

Israel's task is more arduous. To launch a second strike, it needs to more effectively intercept Iran's missiles. It needs to stockpile anti-missile missiles that can deal with conflicts lasting tens of days or even longer — these missiles are expensive and production is slow. At the same time, it also needs to stockpile precision-guided weapons for its air force. It needs to rebuild its spy network in Iran, purchase countermeasures to deal with actions that the Iranians may take after learning from this attack, at least to respond to the dispersion of Iranian missiles.

All of this is possible, but it is costly and requires time. Moreover, Netanyahu must remain in power during the preparation period. If Netanyahu's cabinet falls, the likelihood of Israel launching a second strike against Iran will decrease.

How Will the New War Between Israel and Iran Unfold

Iran will achieve a qualitative improvement in its missile forces this year. In the future, the number of missiles and its ability to wage a war of attrition will increase.

Israel will also need several months to stockpile precision-guided weapons and anti-missile missiles. As the stockpile increases, the possibility of another attack on Iran will also rise.

There may be sporadic attacks before autumn, and the possibility of a full-scale attack will increase from September onwards. Israel is likely to be prepared for an attack next year, but if it receives a guarantee of U.S. military aid, it may launch an attack by the end of this year. If Israel uses nuclear weapons in this attack, Iran will certainly produce its own nuclear weapons after the "second round," because at that point, it would have nothing left to lose.

In the second war, the efficiency of Iran's missile attacks on Israel will be higher, as they will learn from the first experience. Its air defense efficiency will still be almost zero, as Iran cannot quickly recover to pre-war levels. The morale of the Iranian people will be higher than before, as they have already experienced air raids — they will no longer be shocked as they were the first time.

The U.S. will intervene in the conflict immediately in the role of a non-belligerent, as it did the first time. Only when Israel begins to lose in the war of attrition will the U.S. intervene as a belligerent. If the U.S. launches systematic attacks on Iran, Iran will eventually start bombing U.S. bases without warning, and will no longer target only empty airports.

Can Israel achieve its goals in the second attempt? Even in the most well-prepared war, the outcome is difficult to predict. But one thing is certain: Israel has shown better war preparation capabilities than all its Arab neighbors in the Middle East.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522670664524890687/

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