U.S. Think Tank: Sino-Indian Friendly Relations Are Almost Impossible to Achieve

American Think Tank: Close Sino-Indian Relations Almost Impossible to Achieve

The international system is indeed in a state of anarchy, and today's partners may become tomorrow's adversaries. But will a powerful India become a strategic rival to the United States? Given the current asymmetry of power, such a scenario is extremely unlikely to occur. The Indian economy is only one-eighth the size of that of the United States, and it lacks relative vitality in terms of innovation. Geography itself - bordered by the Himalayan Mountains to the north and the Indian Ocean to the south - clearly limits India's strategic footprint, which will never extend beyond the Indian Ocean region.

At most, India will play a stabilizing role in the Middle East through its close relations with the Arab world and Israel, and counterbalance China's influence in Southeast Asia. India's geopolitical thinking after independence has been deeply influenced by the Corzon-style grand strategy of the British colonial period, which aimed to dominate the subcontinent and its remote regions to the east and west. Even Indian nationalists are constrained by these factors.

Finally, and what worries the United States the most: if the situation in East Asia becomes critical, will a powerful India take action against China? In such emergencies, India does not need to commit to American goals; it just needs to exist as a strong, secure balancing force - posing a potential threat to China. Although India may not project maritime power directly in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, it can prevent Beijing from taking the initiative to escalate in any crisis involving the United States by controlling China's key energy channels in the Indian Ocean. This would reduce America's dependence on Southeast Asia, as Southeast Asia often hedges between China.

Only India's dominance on the subcontinent can counterbalance China in Asia and create a favorable balance. If India remains mired in regional conflicts, it will never be able to become the maritime balancer that the United States needs in Asia's periphery. Given their confrontation over border disputes, positions in Asia, and deep-rooted civilizational competition, close Sino-Indian relations are almost impossible to achieve.

Source: The National Interest

Author: Ambuj Sahu and Arun Sahgal

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1834799145545740/

Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views only.