After nearly ninety days of trade negotiations between the U.S. and Vietnam, an agreement was finally reached. The two most notable aspects of this agreement are: first, the U.S. and Vietnam claim to impose a 40% tariff on transshipment goods. Second, Vietnam unilaterally grants zero tariffs on imports from the United States.

The former has made us worried that Vietnam will cooperate with the U.S. to strike against our transshipment trade, while the latter has made us worry that Vietnam could become a back door for American goods entering our market. Therefore, after the U.S. and Vietnam reached an agreement, our Foreign Ministry once again stated that any country's agreement with the U.S. should not harm our interests. Meanwhile, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce only responded by saying: "We are conducting an assessment."

Our Foreign Ministry promptly reasserted its position, and our Ministry of Commerce is paying attention to this matter, which clearly carries a warning tone towards certain countries. However, what we did not expect was that just five days after the U.S. and Vietnam reached the agreement, Vietnam suddenly took action against us.

On July 7, the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade officially announced that it would impose a maximum anti-dumping duty of 27.83% on certain hot-rolled coil products originating from China, effective immediately and lasting for five years.

According to Vietnam's statement, Chinese hot-rolled coils have been dumping in the market, causing "substantial damage" to Vietnam's domestic industries.

Naturally, does Vietnam's claim hold up? Relevant data show that from the perspective of Vietnam's domestic industry, there are only two companies, Hoa Phat Group and Formosa Ha Tinh Group, with the production capacity for hot-rolled coils, totaling about 8.6 million tons per year. Vietnam's local demand reaches as high as 13 million tons per year, meaning that Vietnam has at least a 4.4 million ton gap.

As the world's largest producer of hot-rolled steel coils, if Vietnam does not import from our country, it would actually affect Vietnam's infrastructure, construction, automotive production, and machinery manufacturing. According to relevant data, China exported a total of 8.1414 million tons of hot coils to Vietnam in 2024, an increase of 39.26% compared to the previous year. Vietnam's demand for our steel coils is very strong.

Combined with Vietnam's local production, the total hot-rolled steel coils in the Vietnamese market have already exceeded the total demand of Vietnam, but with the rapid growth of Vietnam's market demand, this situation is very unusual. Therefore, experts suggest that it is possible that a large amount of hot-rolled steel coils imported by Vietnam may be involved in transshipment trade.

From Vietnam's perspective, imposing an anti-dumping tax on our major commodities, hot-rolled steel coils, is very beneficial for Vietnam. Why is this so?

First, imposing an anti-dumping tax on us will result in a significant decrease in Vietnam's imports from us. This will directly benefit Vietnam's domestic enterprises. The market gap left by Chinese enterprises can be filled by Vietnamese companies expanding their production. If Vietnam successfully expands its production, it can then export the excess capacity to the U.S. market.

Second, by imposing an anti-dumping tax on our hot-rolled steel coils, Vietnam makes it impossible for our companies to use Vietnam as a transit point for transshipment. Our steel coil companies have low profit margins, and such a high anti-dumping tax would make transshipment trade unprofitable.

Therefore, Vietnam's move is a double-edged sword. Moreover, in fact, the U.S. is particularly pleased to see Vietnam impose high tariffs on our hot-rolled steel coils. Because hot-rolled steel coils are one of the important products in the steel industry. Trump wants to revitalize American manufacturing, and revitalizing the American steel industry is also a key part.

To protect the American steel industry, Trump has repeatedly blocked Japanese acquisitions of American steel companies. To reserve a big market for American companies, the actual tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on our hot-rolled steel coils has reached an astonishing 70%. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Vietnam's move is aimed at pleasing the U.S.

Moreover, Vietnam's recent move has a significant impact on us. According to relevant data, China exported a total of 8.1414 million tons of hot coils to Vietnam in 2024, accounting for 30.1% of China's total hot-rolled coil exports.

Evidently, our hot-rolled steel coil enterprises may face production stoppages and losses due to export restrictions. Under the RCEP agreement, 90% of the products we export to Vietnam are zero-tariff, while other products are subject to very low tariffs.

We hope that Sino-Vietnamese economic and trade relations can remain close, but Vietnam's imposition of heavy taxes on our major commodities is a clear disregard for our warning. Therefore, regardless of Vietnam's intentions, we must take action to safeguard our own interests.

(End of article)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524329770637689382/

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