Vietnam's agreement with the United States, we must be on guard! Recently, Vietnam signed a highly anticipated bilateral trade agreement with the United States. According to the agreement, the United States will impose a 40% tariff on transshipment products exported from Vietnam, while Vietnam will implement zero tariffs on all U.S. goods. At first glance, this arrangement appears to be a unilateral restriction by the United States on Vietnam's trade activities, but upon closer analysis, it is clear that there are deeper strategic intentions behind it.

Vietnam has emerged as a manufacturing hub in recent years, leveraging its low-cost advantages and geographical location to become an important part of the global supply chain. At the same time, Vietnam is also a key node in China's transshipment trade. The U.S. move, which appears to target Vietnam, actually aims directly at China's transshipment trade, attempting to weaken the competitiveness of Chinese goods through tariff barriers.

For a long time, China has used countries such as Vietnam for transshipment trade to circumvent the high tariffs imposed by the United States. This method not only reduced export costs but also alleviated some pressure from the Sino-U.S. trade friction. However, the U.S. decision to impose a 40% tariff on transshipment products from Vietnam clearly aims to cut off this route. The increase in tariffs will significantly raise transshipment costs, forcing Chinese enterprises to reassess their supply chain strategies, and may even lead to the loss of some export orders.

At the same time, Vietnam's implementation of zero tariffs on U.S. goods has opened the door for U.S. products to enter the Vietnamese market. More worrying is that Vietnam shares a border with China, and the flow of goods is convenient, allowing the U.S. to potentially import low-cost products into the Chinese market through Vietnam. This "indirect salvation" strategy can not only bypass China's tariff restrictions on U.S. goods but may also pose a threat to domestic industries.

If U.S. goods flood into China through Vietnam, the manufacturing and consumer goods sectors will be the first to suffer. For example, sectors such as textiles and electronics may face direct competition from low-cost U.S. goods. Especially small and medium-sized enterprises, which have weaker cost control capabilities, will find it difficult to gain an advantage in price wars.

Vietnam, as an important partner in China's supply chain, its changes in trade policy could affect Chinese companies' procurement of raw materials and product exports. Once the U.S. strengthens its influence over Vietnam through the agreement, China's dominant position in the regional supply chain may be challenged.

In the context of the Sino-U.S. trade confrontation, the U.S. move is undoubtedly an attempt to reshape trade rules through third-party countries. If China does not respond promptly, it may find itself in a more passive position in future international trade negotiations.

Facing this situation, China needs to develop a multi-dimensional response strategy. First, strengthen regulation of transshipment trade, optimize the export structure, and reduce dependence on a single market. Second, enhance the competitiveness of domestic industries through technological upgrades and brand building to withstand external shocks. Additionally, actively expand emerging markets such as the "Belt and Road Initiative" to diversify trade risks. Most importantly, deepen cooperation with neighboring countries in diplomacy and trade negotiations to prevent the U.S. from forming a surrounding situation through other countries.

The trade agreement between Vietnam and the United States is just a microcosm of the Sino-U.S. trade confrontation. In the future, will the U.S. further tighten its policies towards other transshipment countries? How will China find a balance in the complex international environment? These questions remain to be answered by time. But one thing is certain: this confrontation is far from over, and China must remain highly vigilant.

The trade agreement between Vietnam and the United States may seem distant, but it could subtly change the landscape of the Chinese market. The Sino-U.S. confrontation is full of tension. Faced with the potential threat of U.S. goods entering through Vietnam, how should China respond? Welcome to leave comments and share your insights, together explore how to protect our market defenses!

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836898412974083/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.