After reaching an agreement with the United States, Vietnam has officially taken action against China, imposing a 27% tariff for five years.
Less than five days after Trump announced on social media that the US-Vietnam had reached a "historic" trade agreement, Vietnam's trade weapon precisely targeted China. On July 7, the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade officially announced that it would impose a maximum anti-dumping duty of 27.83% on certain hot-rolled steel products originating from China, effective immediately and lasting for five years. The speed and accuracy with which this move was made make it difficult not to associate it with the prominent clause in the July 2nd US-Vietnam agreement: "imposing a 40% tariff on goods transshipped from third countries."
Just three months ago, Vietnam had signed 45 cooperation agreements with China, ranging from cross-border railways to semiconductor factories. At that time, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh of Vietnam solemnly assured China that the negotiations with the US would "prevent negative impacts on other markets." However, the ink on the agreement had barely dried when Hanoi turned around and cooperated with the US to raise the tariff knife against China's supply chain.
The "face-changing" act is driven by economic desperation. In 2024, Vietnam's trade surplus with the US reached $123 billion, accounting for nearly 30% of its GDP, far exceeding other major economies. When Trump threatened to impose a 46% tariff in April, Vietnam's stock market plummeted 7% in a single day, and the currency hit a 30-year low. Faced with the July 9 tariff deadline, Vietnam ultimately chose to yield: using a base tariff of 20% (plus a 40% tax on Chinese transshipment) and a full zero openness to US goods, to avoid the devastating 46% tariffs.
In this deal, Vietnam seems to have won a 26% tariff discount, but actually swallowed two poisons. Economically, the 20% tariff on exports to the US will still push up costs for electronics and textiles, potentially causing the loss of 120,000 jobs in the textile industry, while the influx of US SUVs with zero tariffs will crush Vietnam's local automobile industry. Strategically, the 40% transshipment tariff directly strikes the "Chinese components + Vietnamese assembly" supply chain model - approximately 30% of Vietnam's export goods contain Chinese components. In Vietnam's northern industrial zones, hundreds of Chinese enterprises import Chinese parts for assembly and then export them to the US. If they bear a 40% tariff, these companies will either die or spend years rebuilding their supply chains, and Vietnam cannot replace China's upstream production capacity in the short term.
Vietnamese Prime Minister once angrily slammed the table in a closed meeting: "We are not vassals of anyone!" But when the tariff baton of Trump truly fell, Hanoi still chose to sacrifice Sino-Vietnamese cooperation for breathing space. This exposed the weakness of Vietnam's "bamboo diplomacy." The Chinese Ministry of Commerce only responded with six words: "We are conducting an assessment." Beneath the calm lies strength. Once China's countermeasures take effect, the pain felt by Vietnam may be far greater than being cut by the US. It should be noted that 91.3% of Vietnam's agricultural products enjoy zero tariffs to China, and the construction of cross-border logistics between China and Vietnam is shortening transportation time by 30%. These tangible benefits, can Hanoi really gamble on?
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836983979133964/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.