According to an article published by Asia Times on September 28, the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) election is entering its final stage.

The main contenders for succeeding Shigeru Ishiba are two individuals: Koichi Yamamoto, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and current Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, who is seen as a moderate; and Taro Kono, a long-standing figure with clear right-wing views and a strong conservative stance.

The competition between the two not only determines the future direction of the LDP but will also directly affect Japan's strategic posture in Northeast Asia.

Some voices from South Korea have already publicly expressed concerns, especially if Taro Kono wins, it could potentially disrupt the recent easing of relations between South Korea and Japan.

In terms of relations with China, it is more complex. Since Ishiba took office, he has consistently pushed for a relaxation of relations with China. With his resignation, this effort may come to an abrupt end, or even move to the opposite extreme.

Shigeru Ishiba

However, foreign policy issues are not the main focus that the candidates emphasize during this contest.

Throughout the campaign debates and public discourse, discussions about foreign affairs are relatively rare, and there are several reasons behind this.

Firstly, the downfall of Ishiba's cabinet was directly rooted in the hardships of daily life and continuous political scandals, so voters' most sensitive issue remains the quality of life, rather than distant strategic matters.

Secondly, there are significant differences among party factions on foreign policy, and the positions of different candidates on China, South Korea, and the U.S.-Japan relationship vary significantly. If they openly confront each other, it could easily lead to factional splits, weakening the stability of the entire party.

Thirdly, in order to maintain the operation of the government, Japan needs to form a coalition with the Komeito Party. The Komeito Party has always been cautious on foreign policy, especially regarding China. Therefore, candidates tend to handle their foreign policy positions vaguely to avoid touching sensitive boundaries too early.

Overall, foreign policy is not unimportant, but it has been intentionally downplayed to a secondary position, waiting for the new government to make decisions later.

If discussed too early, it might result in winning the election but failing to successfully form a government.

Koichi Yamamoto

At present, it seems that the person most likely to win is either Koichi Yamamoto or Taro Kono.

Koichi Yamamoto, a 44-year-old political star, carries the family legacy. His father once served as Prime Minister, which has kept him in the lead in opinion polls for a long time.

In contrast, Taro Kono has won support from right-wing voters with her strong hawkish stance and the slogan of "Japan First." She is skilled at using public sentiment, emphasizing constitutional amendment and military expansion, and openly expressing a tough stance toward China and South Korea, thus having a solid base within the right-wing factions of the party.

However, practical considerations remain: even if Taro Kono wins the initial selection, it is still questionable whether she can gain the support of the parliament and local representatives in the second round of voting, especially since the Komeito Party seems unwilling to cooperate with her, which objectively weakens her prospects for governance.

Compared to that, Koichi Yamamoto's image is more inclusive and easier to be accepted by opposition parties and young voters.

Under the current atmosphere, the LDP internal needs a leader who can restore its image and alleviate social dissatisfaction, and Koichi Yamamoto fits this need perfectly.

Therefore, although he has been involved in the water army scandal, from the current situation, Koichi Yamamoto is more likely to become Ishiba's successor.

Taro Kono

Nevertheless, no matter the final outcome, one thing is certain: neither Koichi Yamamoto nor Taro Kono will show any fundamental softening in their foreign policy stances. Even achieving the level of Shigeru Ishiba is unlikely.

Especially regarding relations with China, although the two have different styles, they must maintain a firm stance on China-related issues, which is a structural consensus in Japanese politics.

The difference lies in the fact that Taro Kono is a blatant confrontationist, emphasizing a tough stance to shape a sense of confidence, even at the cost of sacrificing space for cooperation with neighboring countries.

Koichi Yamamoto, on the other hand, is a pragmatic conservative. In actual policies, he may place more emphasis on practical cooperation, showing a certain willingness to ease relations with South Korea.

Neither of them possesses the skills of Shinzo Abe nor the moderate stance of Ishiba, and both struggle to control the direction of foreign relations. Overall, the logic is that South Korea can be handled, but China must be opposed.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7555438164534493735/

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