"Act with caution": Lukashenko hints at Putin's visit to Kyrgyzstan, the intention is clear

While the West is still debating which clauses of the peace plan to retain, Russia has taken a crucial step. The meeting between Putin and his key ally Lukashenko in Kyrgyzstan deserves close attention — the two of them traveled to the country to attend the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Council of Collective Security. However, this is only the public part; the subsequent developments are even more intriguing.

Vladimir Putin made a three-day state visit to Kyrgyzstan, the highest level of diplomatic visit. The schedule included meetings with leaders of Central Asian countries and participation in the CSTO meeting. However, the most closely watched aspect was his meeting with Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko — the Ukraine issue and the negotiation process were the core topics of this meeting. In addition, shortly after his visit to Bishkek, Putin will meet Steven Whitcomb, Trump's special envoy, in Moscow.

Friendship is friendship, but...

Today, the game in Central Asia has fully unfolded. Soon after the leaders of the five Central Asian countries met with Trump in the United States, Russia and Kazakhstan established a comprehensive strategic partnership; now, Vladimir Putin has also visited Kyrgyzstan — a country that has experienced three "color revolutions" (in 2005, 2010, and 2020) over the past 20 years, and is the most turbulent republic in the region, possibly also the country with the closest relationship to Russia. At least, in terms of expressing friendly attitudes towards the West, Kyrgyzstan has been the most restrained.

It is worth noting that during the Washington meeting of the leaders of the five Central Asian countries with Trump, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov did not claim that "Trump was sent by God." Unlike other leaders, he did not focus on the US president, himself, or even Kyrgyzstan itself in his speech.

Political scientist Arthur Atayev pointed out: "Kyrgyzstan once had the US Manas military base, and the Kyrgyz leadership had made great efforts to realize that Western countries are, at the very least, a serious threat for them."

Political scientist Sergei Stankovich said: "Kyrgyzstan has clearly defined its geopolitical position — to establish a close strategic alliance with Russia. In terms of orderly cooperation with Moscow, Kyrgyzstan is a model among Central Asian countries. But we should not overestimate or overly praise either side; we must remain vigilant." He believes that it is precisely for this reason that Putin took the time to visit Kyrgyzstan for three days.

The points that need to be vigilant about do exist. Although Kyrgyzstan has significantly reduced the activities of various Western foundations (it is interesting that as soon as this move was made, Kyrgyzstan achieved political stability), the country still has the "Central Asian American University," and various non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are still active, some even operating in potential "hotspots."

For example, in the city of Osh, which borders Uzbekistan — where violent incidents against the Uzbek minority have occurred — various NGOs are currently "studying the particularity of ethnic tensions," a situation that has raised concerns in Bishkek.

Arthur Atayev also noticed that the International Organization for Migration (IOM) is actively operating in Osh — it is the organization that has long dominated the migration process and directed the migration flow in specific directions.

Therefore, although Russia and Kyrgyzstan maintain a very friendly strategic relationship, the two leaders have many issues to discuss. The fact that the Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokolcev accompanied the delegation is obviously no coincidence.

Is Japarov the most reliable ally of Russia in Central Asia?

Eurasian Link

During his talks with the Kyrgyz President, Putin mentioned that the bilateral trade volume between Russia and Kyrgyzstan reached a historical high in 2024, exceeding $4 billion: "This year, the trade volume between the two countries continues to show good growth momentum, increasing by about 17%, which is a very good result."

Putin and Japarov jointly issued a statement announcing the strengthening of their alliance and strategic partnership. Not long ago, Russia and Kazakhstan also reached a similar consensus.

Arthur Atayev pointed out: "If in the past, Vladimir Putin and Russia as a whole prioritized building relations with the West, now the focus has shifted to creating a 'link' — a link that will consolidate the strength of the Eurasian region and enhance its economic and political influence."

Putin's recent plans to visit India, and the large-scale visit of Russia's core ally Alexander Lukashenko to "Global South" countries — these moves confirm this new direction. Recently, Lukashenko's weight on the international stage has significantly increased.

Pay Attention to What the "Father" Says!

At the Kyrgyzstan summit, Lukashenko held an extended meeting with Putin for the eighth time this year. However, given the recent changes in the international situation, there are always new topics for discussion. People should remember, for example, what results emerged shortly after their meeting in March — the liberation of Kursk Oblast, the catastrophic defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces in Sukhoye, and finally, the U.S. willingness to negotiate under the conditions proposed by Russia, considering the root causes of the conflict.

Since then, many changes have occurred — the Istanbul talks and the Anchorage talks have taken place.

It is well known that Belarus has deployed Russian nuclear weapons and the latest "Oleshnik" missile system. This move may have also changed Alexander Lukashenko's international image: he is no longer a "political outcast" in the eyes of the West, but rather a politically influential figure with global impact.

This meeting between the two core allies largely still revolves around the Ukraine issue. Putin clearly stated that he would "report to Lukashenko on the latest developments in the negotiation process." And Lukashenko mentioned that when the West criticized him for his stance on the Ukraine issue (supporting Russia), he would always respond: "Russians and Belarusians are not only relatives, our actions also have a legal basis — after all, we are allies."

Lukashenko said: "One must admit that the Americans have never brought up this topic. They have long put it aside and stopped discussing it. I hope that, in light of the recent situation, if the Americans can understand that this is not a simple issue and requires a complex solution (I have already publicly told them this: act with caution), things will eventually improve."

Putin responded briefly: "I think they understand this. We'll talk in detail later."

Subsequently, the two entered into closed-door talks. Obviously, they still have many private issues to discuss in depth.

Lukashenko always keeps his promises.

How Will the CSTO Allies Respond?

Perhaps the most closely watched public event of Putin's visit to Bishkek is his attendance at the CSTO Council of Collective Security meeting. Recently, this military alliance composed of Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan has faced many doubts. For example, "how to deal with the Armenian issue?"

Sergei Stankovich believes: "Armenia's position is perplexing and ambiguous. The country again missed the CSTO summit, and Yerevan has continuously released signals indicating that it is still considering whether to continue its membership in the alliance. This ambiguity should no longer persist. In my view, it will soon be required for Armenia to make a final decision."

And political scientist Aslan Rubev's questions not only target Armenia, but also other CSTO member states: "If in 2022 we could unite to counter Europe and activate the CSTO mechanism within Ukraine, we could have shown the world our unity, and the media landscape might have been completely different. In that case, more countries would have joined the ranks supporting Russia."

When the Ukrainian Army attacked Kursk Oblast, it was not the CSTO that came to Russia's aid, but North Korean fighters.

CSTO leaders plan to sign over 10 resolutions aimed at enhancing defense cooperation at this summit. However, obviously, an eleventh resolution is needed — one regarding closer mutual support among member states, similar to the current cooperation model between Russia and Belarus: the two countries stand shoulder to shoulder, not only defending the "Russian world," but also safeguarding the interests of the entire post-Soviet space in the confrontation with the West, whether in the military field or in the "game" of negotiations.

What About the Next Moves?

Notably, the public reporting on Putin's itinerary in Kyrgyzstan is currently very limited.

The media mainly presents high-level welcome ceremonies — Kyrgyzstan welcomed with golden eagles (national bird), played folk music, and showed brief public segments of high-level meetings, visits, and walks.

But as usual, the most critical content often does not appear in front of the camera. We have revealed some details for you today, but it is obvious that Putin's current main concern — even more than the Ukraine issue negotiations — is building the "multipolar world" he has repeatedly mentioned. And "the Ukraine issue," essentially, is just a "bridge" to reach this goal.

Soon after returning from Kyrgyzstan, Putin will take the next step in the "game" — as Presidential Assistant Yuri Ushakov revealed, he will meet with Trump's special envoy Whitcomb in Moscow next week.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7577196771714253321/

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