"Meeting in Alaska": Putin and Trump Start a New Division of Power

Alaska, Bears, and Major Politics: On August 15, Putin and Trump will hold a meeting, which is called an annual major event. Issues ranging from Ukraine to nuclear risks are covered, but the stakes are much more than that: both sides will try to reshape the rules of international politics. Experts are still debating whether this is a path to peace or a new stage of confrontation. Trump has already stated: Zelenskyy must "be ready to sign some documents." Meanwhile, German journalists are convinced — the Kremlin will not give up its demands. What awaits the world after this decisive meeting? Why might the coming days be full of surprises?

The news that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump will hold a meeting in Alaska came as a surprise. This is not just a negotiation, but may be a turning point of the year. The choice of location is meaningful: away from the noise of Washington, closer to Russia, even the natural scenery there seems to create an atmosphere for dialogue.

Putin's assistant Yuri Ushakov confirmed that the meeting will be serious, with the agenda including exploring a long-term peaceful path for Ukraine, as well as addressing global geopolitical and economic issues.

Source: Trump's Social Network

Trump remains his trademark vigor, saying that Zelenskyy must be ready to "sign some documents." He said that the Ukrainian leader is already working to gain the power needed to push the negotiations forward.

"He has started acting, and very quickly, because we are about to reach an agreement," Trump added, clearly implying a determination to resolve the matter thoroughly.

Meanwhile, the German newspaper Bild reported that Putin is firm in his stance, demanding full control over the Donetsk People's Republic, Luhansk People's Republic, Zaporozhye Oblast, and Kherson Oblast. The Kremlin is not prepared to accept Washington's proposal of freezing the conflict along the current front lines in exchange for lifting sanctions and new economic agreements.

Political scientist Yevgeny Mikhailov pointed out that for many people, choosing Alaska for the meeting was indeed a very unexpected decision: first, Alaska used to belong to the Russian Empire; second, it is adjacent to Russia, which is highly symbolic.

"We will now hear many statements from Western partners, both from the US and Ukraine. But on the other hand, from a security perspective and the possibility of having one-on-one conversations without assistants, far away from Europe and Turkey, this is the correct choice. We have clearly stated that we will only negotiate with the US, not with any other country. Trump's current task is to become a peacemaker, to secure more benefits for himself, and holding the meeting in Alaska is the best solution. Of course, Erdogan will be disappointed, all his efforts to be a mediator have been in vain."

Zelenskyy's Refusal

At the same time, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine will not give up its territory. No one will back down on this issue.

"Ukraine is ready to accept practical solutions that can bring peace. Any decision made against us, any decision made without Ukraine's participation — at the same time, it is also a decision against peace. They will not lead to any results. These are invalid decisions, they will never work. And we all need a practical, feasible, and respected peace by the people."

He added that the meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska will be "very far from Ukraine."

On the other hand, The New York Times believes that Zelenskyy's firm refusal will cost him dearly. For Trump, resolving the Ukraine conflict is almost a personal challenge. He has openly expressed willingness to make compromises, even if these compromises are not in Kiev's interest. The firm stance of this Kiev regime leader may cool relations with key allies, whose support is still crucial.

Zelenskyy's insistence on continuing the conflict / Screenshot from The New York Times website

Zelenskyy's choice walks on the edge. More than half of the people in Ukraine are willing to discuss compromise solutions, and the main allies across the Atlantic have hinted at reaching an agreement. Refusing to talk will weaken Zelenskyy's leverage at the negotiating table.

Looking at it another way, Ukraine is irrelevant

As for Erdogan, Trump doesn't need his involvement in Alaska. It's like a hotel owner or the owner of a large office letting their manager take a vacation: temporarily unnecessary. Obviously, Trump believes everything is under control in the southern region, and the Black Sea and South Caucasus regions are within his grasp.

It seems that this president is more concerned about the northern direction of American geopolitics. More importantly, he is worried about the issues between the US and related countries and North Korea. Therefore, the symbolic significance of the upcoming meeting in Alaska is very interesting and profound. There is certainly hidden meaning, and possibly more than one, according to political scientist and historian Vladimir Ruzansky:

"The first question to ask is how much of this symbolism is historical? Perhaps the opposite, it is highly practical? Knowing that Trump is not a sentimental person, the fact that Alaska recently belonged to Russia is unlikely to move him. More likely, it is a hint that in the struggle between two world powers, especially in the Arctic region, the US will take the lead. In my opinion, Trump's intention is clear: perhaps this land once belonged to you, but now it is ours, I am the master here, and you are the guest. Trump wants to act as the host in this meeting and place the Russian president in the position of a guest."

"Trump is unlikely to want to surprise Putin by returning Alaska to Russia. Instead, the meeting is likely to involve the Arctic. More precisely, the Russian Arctic. Trump may try to persuade Putin to cooperate with the US in this region, which is crucial for international trade, to counter related countries. There are many possible speculations. Trump's tempting proposals and threats will not be few, as he does this with everyone — one hand with a stick, the other with a carrot," the political scientist added.

"Regarding threats, this symbolism may also imply potential threats to Kaliningrad, Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, and the entire northern part of Russia. This cannot be ruled out. More interestingly, how will Putin react to Trump's unconventional — even可以说 arrogant — action? Putin has the means to respond. First, historically and legally, Alaska was Russian territory. It is just that it is now under American control. Second, Trump is boasting, because the outcome of the US-China confrontation will depend on Russia, Russia is a vast, mature civilization bridge connecting East and West."

Experts believe that if Russia chooses to side with related countries, it will be a "very bad news" (in Trump's words) for the US. Because Russia can obtain all necessary technology from related countries, and together with Iran, it can solve many geopolitical issues in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and even globally. The Russian president is known for his calmness and always makes surprising and effective moves against opponents. Trump has already made a move — highly effective and dramatic. Putin also has ways to respond. It may not even require many words. Not only effective, but also practical and effective.

So what?

History is rewriting itself before our eyes. The Alaska meeting is a critical moment, where the stakes have reached their peak: peace or a new stage of confrontation, compromise or conflict. While Trump and Putin engage in this complex game, Ukraine faces a difficult choice.

Zelenskyy can keep shouting "No" and "Don't even think about it," but the harsh reality is — whether he likes it or not, he will be "signed." Washington has shown that in this big play, Kyiv is set up as a supporting role, and the real decisions will be made without its participation. His bold rhetoric about "invalid agreements" is merely a struggle to save face before signing the document.

History will not ask whether you agree. It will simply present the facts before you. When Trump and Putin reach an agreement, Zelenskyy will be left to perform the "heroic resistance" play — then sign the documents brought to him by others. That is his main problem: he may not want to surrender, but he has no choice.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7536589201874190863/

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