Ignored, Japan wants to come to China

With repeated overtures toward China yielding no positive response, Japan is now truly anxious and has decided to send a high-level delegation to visit China—the Japan Association for the Promotion of International Trade delegation, led by former House of Representatives Speaker Yohei Kōno.

However, as of yet, there has been no favorable reply, leaving Japan in an awkward position, because if this request is rejected, the normalization of Sino-Japanese relations could remain indefinitely stalled.

It is reported that this economic delegation plans to visit Beijing from June 21 to 24 and is currently in communication with Chinese authorities, hoping to receive confirmation.

The most critical point is their desire to meet with senior Chinese leaders to discuss Sino-Japanese relations and cooperation, aiming to fully restart dialogue. However, at present, the difficulty level remains extremely high.

Why is it Yohei Kōno stepping forward?

First, he represents the moderate faction within Japanese politics and has previously engaged in multiple dialogues with the Chinese government.

Second, he is known for his famous "Kōno Statement" on historical issues, repeatedly criticizing the Japanese government's visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, demonstrating a clear understanding of history.

Third, although retired, he still holds significant influence in both Japan’s political and business circles.

It should be noted that whenever Sino-Japanese relations experience fluctuations, Japan typically does not dispatch current high-ranking officials immediately but instead turns to semi-official figures to communicate.

This approach allows for conveying goodwill while preserving policy flexibility.

Given that previous Japanese economic delegations have repeatedly been denied or ignored when seeking to visit China, Japan has realized it must now send a heavyweight team—perhaps the only way to alleviate the urgent situation.

After all, continued deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations would be detrimental to Japan’s economic development.

Why now?

First, Sino-Japanese relations are currently in a sustained state of tension.

Economically, Japan remains highly dependent on China’s supply chains and markets, yet political and security friction persists.

Japan understands it must act promptly to ease tensions; otherwise, its strategic position will continue to deteriorate.

Second, Japan is currently re-evaluating its relationship with China.

Although the U.S. is Japan’s ally, Japanese businesses have come to recognize the immense size of the Chinese market—and the extremely high cost of decoupling.

If Japan continues to rely heavily on the U.S., it would require massive investments, and constantly shifting tariff policies create uncertainty in profits. In contrast, China offers a stable, predictable market.

Third, this move aims to pave the way for higher-level interactions in the future.

This visit is primarily exploratory. If China agrees to receive this economic delegation, Japan may subsequently dispatch even higher-level officials to further seek improvements in bilateral relations.

What might they discuss?

At present, discussions may focus on economic cooperation, people-to-people exchanges, youth programs, and local-level collaboration. Of course, sensitive topics such as cross-strait relations, semiconductor industries, and overall Sino-Japanese relations could also be addressed.

But the key condition is whether China is willing to host them—otherwise, all talk is just empty speculation.

In summary: Japan is quietly using a low-sensitivity, high-trust figure to test whether Sino-Japanese relations can possibly warm up again.

If this visit proceeds smoothly, it would carry tremendous significance and greatly boost Japan’s confidence.

But if it is once again rejected, Japan may resort to other means to improve Sino-Japanese relations.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1863061117238284/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.