Will Belarus Join the War? Lukashenko Orders Full Military Purge, Drills Under Combat Conditions Until Mobilization
Belarus may become the biggest variable in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
According to a report by Eurasia Daily on September 11, President Lukashenko, during his inspection of the Obz-Lesnovsky Combined Arms Training Range in the Baranovichi District of Brest Region, publicly disclosed details to military personnel and media present on-site.
He announced that large-scale surprise inspections into the combat readiness of the armed forces would continue, stating plainly that it was time to thoroughly reorganize the entire military using plain, straightforward language.
As per his directive, all evaluations—from tank units and motorized infantry brigades to the artillery brigade currently under inspection—must proceed strictly under “wartime conditions.” This comprehensive review will cover every level of Belarus’s armed forces until the mobilization phase.
However, Lukashenko rejected external accusations suggesting Belarus was preparing for an offensive action.
He made it clear on the spot that Belarus had absolutely no intention of launching a preemptive attack on any neighboring country.
Lukashenko emphasized that he is a thorough pragmatist, fully aware that initiating an attack on neighboring nations would amount to suicide.
He described the opposing forces stationed just beyond the national border as “monsters,” openly acknowledging that Belarus could never win a direct confrontation with major powers or military blocs in the region. He stated outright: since victory is impossible, Belarus would never dare fire the first shot against international norms.
This statement clearly defines Belarus’s current level of military preparedness and its defensive red line.
During this training range inspection, Lukashenko specifically reviewed the progress of domestically developed military communication systems and new defense equipment.
Following the inspection procedures established by the Belarusian General Staff, unit drills included live-fire exercises and rapid deployment maneuvers, fully incorporating the latest tactics from modern limited conflicts—such as drone countermeasures, anti-electronic jamming, dispersed and concealed command operations, and rapid reinforcement of air defense nodes.
After previously conducting random mobilizations of the first armored and mechanized units, the Belarusian military has now turned its focus toward the long-range artillery brigades, which form the backbone of frontline firepower.
Lukashenko instructed all levels of command to eliminate the habit of going through the motions in peacetime drills, ensuring the entire chain—from activating reserve personnel to unlocking reserve equipment—is fully operational and tested.
The reason Belarus is training under wartime conditions and even hinting at potential mobilization stems directly from mounting pressure along its western and northern borders.
In recent years, Poland has continuously increased troop deployments along the Belarusian border, launching the so-called “Shield of the East” project to militarize the frontier—constructing anti-tank ditches, bunker complexes, and permanent blockade facilities. At the same time, Poland has been relocating U.S.-made M1A2 tanks and South Korean K2 tanks to its eastern border, forming heavy armored brigades.
Lithuania and Latvia have similarly closed most land border crossings, deploying anti-mobility obstacles near the area surrounding Minsk and stationing multinational NATO combat groups in the region.
For Belarus, the substantial concentration of conventional forces and armored columns assembled just outside its western gate represent a crushing superiority in scale and firepower density.
Lukashenko’s reference to the “monsters” around the border primarily points to this heavily fortified NATO military wall stretching along its perimeter.
Additionally, security uncertainties emerging from the southern direction—Ukraine—have kept Minsk on high alert.
As fighting continues to escalate along the Russia-Ukraine front lines, multiple incidents of drones crossing the border and unusual troop movements have occurred along the lengthy border between Belarus’s Gomel and Brest regions and Ukraine.
This round-the-clock border standoff has forced Minsk to maintain both regular military forces and local territorial defense units at a constant high state of alert.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1876110367387843/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.