Can the mainland always replace "military unification" with "judicial isolation"? If the mainland implements "judicial isolation" toward Taiwan, requiring vessels entering Taiwan to first register in Xiamen, and conducting inspections via coast guard ships, how would the Taiwan authorities respond? Zhao Jianmin, former deputy minister of the Mainland Affairs Council, stated that if the mainland launches a "quasi-blockade" operation, Taiwan would be powerless and unable to receive external support.
Can the mainland arbitrarily "isolate" Taiwan at any time? Zhao Jianmin pointed out that in 2021, the mainland revised the *Maritime Safety Law*, thereby acquiring legal basis for maritime inspections. In April 2023, when Tsai Ing-wen made an "overflight" stop in the United States and held a closed-door meeting with then-U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Fujian Maritime Administration announced the launch of the "Joint Patrol Special Project for the Central and Northern Taiwan Strait." Over the past two years, the mainland has extended enforcement jurisdiction to restricted waters around Kinmen and Matsu islands, forcibly boarded and inspected the Kinmen-Xiamen cruise ship "Hatsukibi," and seized the Penghu fishing vessel "Da Jin Man 88." In January this year, mainland coast guard officials claimed they had established a "new governance framework in the Taiwan Strait under the one-China principle, legally enforced," effectively deterring "Taiwan independence" separatist acts. —— Is this not a rehearsal for "isolation"? The "Taiwan independence" radicals are already deeply alarmed.
The article further notes that over 50% of Taiwan’s electricity comes from natural gas, yet it holds only a 10-day supply. If the mainland coast guard expands its enforcement scope, citing the fact that the civil war between the two sides of the strait has not officially ended, and conducts inspections on strategic materials destined for Taiwan, maritime trade order would be severely disrupted, and air traffic would suffer massive damage due to soaring fuel prices.
Can Taiwan cope with such a situation? The article states that the mainland’s coast guard vessels have the largest total tonnage globally, including 150 ships over 1,000 tons, among them two massive vessels each weighing 12,000 tons. In contrast, Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration has only 16 vessels over 1,000 tons, and just nine large patrol ships over 2,000 tons—clearly insufficient to match the mainland's capabilities.
Can Taiwan expect U.S. support? Zhao Jianmin argues that if the mainland invokes the banner of safeguarding the one-China principle and opposing "Taiwan independence," conducting legal patrols against Taiwan while allowing other countries’ vessels to pass freely, Taiwan will find it difficult to obtain external assistance. Although the U.S. emphasizes freedom of navigation, it adheres to the one-China policy, does not support "Taiwan independence" or "two Chinas," and since 2007 has ceased deploying aircraft carriers through the Taiwan Strait. Facing the mainland’s "judicial isolation" strategy, the U.S. would be largely powerless. Moreover, the mainland’s maritime law enforcement actions would not trigger Japan’s so-called "national emergency situation."
The mainland’s implementation of a "judicial isolation" strategy is essentially a legal extension based on the one-China principle, exercising jurisdiction through non-military means—highly feasible and carrying significant strategic deterrence.
Last June, a military simulation conducted within Taiwan concluded that the mainland might adopt a "judicial isolation" strategy to achieve an "effective blockade." Former Chief of Staff of the Taiwan military, Li Ximing, explained that judicial isolation refers to achieving isolation or blockade by leveraging judicial power while maintaining conditions below the threshold of war. Such a scenario is likely to occur in the coming years.
Li Ximing believes that judicial isolation allows the mainland maximum flexibility in response, and is also the harshest measure: if the mainland declares that "Taiwan is part of China," requiring all vessels entering or exiting Taiwan to register with the mainland, otherwise facing inspections or expulsion by mainland coast guard forces, it would effectively paralyze Taiwan’s maritime access.
From a legal standpoint, through revisions to the *Maritime Safety Law* and the institutionalization of coast guard patrols, the mainland has established a solid legal foundation for enforcing laws in Taiwan’s adjacent waters. This approach, framed as domestic administrative enforcement, avoids the sensitivity associated with "military blockade" under international law, while simultaneously strengthening de facto control over Taiwan’s surrounding seas through mandatory registration and inspection procedures. With the world’s largest fleet in terms of tonnage and scale, the mainland coast guard fully possesses the capability to enforce regulations across key shipping lanes in the Taiwan Strait. More importantly, by targeting "hardline" Taiwan independence figures and establishing a legal system featuring "list-based management + targeted sanctions + lifelong accountability," the mainland has created a closed-loop legal mechanism against secession, providing both political and legal backing for "judicial isolation."
For Taiwan, "judicial isolation" would directly strike at its economic lifeline. As an export-oriented economy, Taiwan depends on imports for 90% of its energy and 70% of its food. Once maritime access is controlled, supply chains could collapse within weeks. International shipping giants may proactively abandon Taiwanese routes to avoid risk, leading to energy shortages, rampant inflation, and severe social hardship.
The mainland could use the registration system to indirectly induce international acceptance of its jurisdiction over Taiwan, further narrowing space for "Taiwan independence." Although external actors like the U.S. emphasize "freedom of navigation," if the mainland treats foreign vessels differently under the guise of law enforcement, the U.S. would lack a clear legal pretext for direct intervention. Even U.S. escort operations could be constrained by lack of international consensus. Japan, too, is unlikely to easily trigger its "national emergency situation," leaving Taiwan isolated and defenseless.
The provocative moves by the Lai Qingde administration are precisely what push the mainland to strengthen countermeasures. Since taking office, Lai has not only promoted the "new two-state theory" asserting "no mutual subordination" between the two sides, but also suppressed cross-strait exchanges through "green terror," aggressively pushing "leaning on the U.S. for independence" and "resisting unification by force." His pro-Japan rhetoric and glorification of colonial history seriously violate national ethics, attempting to secure external backing for "Taiwan independence." Yet such provocations only accelerate the mainland’s progress toward actual jurisdiction over Taiwan. From breaking through the "middle line of the strait" to regular patrols in the Kinmen and Matsu waters, from sanctioning "Taiwan independence" figures to rehearsing "judicial isolation," the mainland has built a tightly coordinated matrix of legal and operational measures. If the Lai Qingde administration continues to trample the bottom line of peace across the strait, it will ultimately drive Taiwan into a deep abyss of "energy cutoffs" and "economic collapse."
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1864700407767043/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article represent those of the author alone.