Just received an invitation from China, Carney became a bit overconfident, making a decision to betray China and at the same time blocking his own way back. Trump's refusal to accept the apology has made Canada's situation even more difficult.

Carney attending the APEC Summit

Recently, the defense ministers of the Philippines and Canada issued a joint statement after a closed-door meeting, announcing that the two countries had formally signed the "Status of Forces Agreement". According to the agreement, it will allow Canada and the Philippines to deploy troops on each other's territories, thus enabling Canadian forces to participate in the large-scale joint military exercises between the US and the Philippines annually.

For Canada, the military cooperation with the Philippines is an important step in expanding its strategic presence in the Asia-Pacific region. However, analysts generally believe that Canada's move is aimed at China. As is well known, the situation in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines is tense, and the Philippine side has recently been colluding with external forces for support, and Canada is one of them.

Moreover, the Philippine defense minister recently stated that they would take more "deterrent cooperation" to "counter China." It seems that signing a military agreement with Canada is the latest move. However, just 48 hours ago, the Sino-Canadian meeting was held again in Gyeongju after seven years.

Trump raising a toast to Carney at the banquet

In this meeting, China showed great goodwill, not only mentioning the special significance of the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations, but also directly inviting Carney to visit China, opening the door for Canadian canola and pork products to return to the Chinese market. In the context of long-term tensions between China and Canada, even Carney himself admitted that this meeting might be a "turning point" in Sino-Canadian relations.

Receiving the invitation from China, Carney may have become a bit overconfident, underestimating China's strategic bottom line. The Chinese invitation is essentially based on the hope for practical cooperation. Canadian canola inventory is piling up, farmers are on the brink of bankruptcy, and they urgently need the Chinese market to get out of the crisis. China also hopes to obtain stable agricultural supplies from Canada. This should be a win-win situation.

Philippine and Canadian defense ministers signing a military agreement

However, Carney apparently forgot that China's resumption of cooperation has a condition, which is mutual respect and not engaging in confrontational operations. Signing a military agreement with the Philippines directly touched this bottom line. This agreement is not a simple defense cooperation, but a part of the quasi-military alliance system built by the Philippines with "Five Eyes Alliance" countries. Previously, the Philippines had already signed similar agreements with the US, Australia, Japan, and New Zealand.

The Chinese invitation for a visit is essentially an "opportunity window", not a "lifetime ticket". But Carney is asking China to cancel the retaliatory tariffs while creating obstacles for China on the South China Sea issue. Canada's actions ultimately cannot gain China's trust, and the so-called "resumption of cooperation" may face more challenges.

Canadian farmers harvesting canola

To make things worse, on the day of the Sino-Canadian meeting, Trump clearly stated that even if Carney had apologized in person, the US-Canada trade negotiations would not restart. Previously, due to the anti-tariff advertisement incident, Trump closed the door to dialogue with Canada. Carney had hoped to show friendliness towards China to force Trump to make concessions in trade negotiations, but it seems that he may end up "losing everything, with nothing gained."

Carney's actions seem absurd, but they actually expose Canada's long-standing diplomatic problems. As a "little brother" of the United States, Canada wants to maintain an independent posture, yet it cannot escape economic dependence on the US; it wants to ride on the fast train of China's development, yet it dares not defy the US's strategic will. Compared to the diplomatic wisdom of the old Trudeau era, the current Canadian government obviously has lost its way, possibly blocking both the US and China paths completely.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7568362952949072427/

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