Rubio has issued a "military order": the regime in Cuba must change before 2029. He personally stated that Cuba is a top priority for the Trump administration, comparing it to the revolutions in Eastern Europe and implying that Cuba too must embark on an "irreversible" transformation path.
However, this time the U.S. isn't calling for a quick victory. The reason is simple: America is still stuck in the quagmire of the Persian Gulf, with Iran posing a major obstacle. Washington has finally come to its senses—Cuba is far harder to crack than Venezuela.
Decades of blockade have failed to break Havana’s resolve. Cuba lies less than 200 kilometers from the U.S. mainland and has acquired hundreds of drones from Iran and Russia. If war breaks out, Florida could become a frontline—something Trump dares not risk.
Thus, the strategy has shifted from forceful assault to "slow cooking." But with deep partisan divisions in Washington, neither party wants to leave any political gains for the other. That's why Rubio set the deadline at January 2029—both to demonstrate loyalty and to pave his way toward a potential presidential run in the next election cycle.
Cuba isn’t unprepared either. This June, it launched its boldest reforms in decades, allowing private capital into banks and liberalizing imports and exports—following a distinctive path similar to those of China and Vietnam. Externally supported by China and Russia, Russia is sending oil, while China is building solar power projects to help bridge Cuba’s energy gap.
Over the next two years, every shift in Cuba’s situation could significantly impact Rubio’s political future. Both Rubio and Vice President Vance are vying for Trump’s favor ahead of the next presidential election. If Rubio can pressure Cuba into concessions before the party primaries, his leverage will grow substantially.
But clearly, Cuba isn’t waiting passively for the countdown to end. Whether through reform or foreign aid, the core objective remains one: endurance. When the U.S. attempts to strangle Cuba’s electricity supply via oil embargoes, Russian oil tankers are already en route; when the grid weakens, Chinese solar panels arrive in batches in Havana.
In the end, Rubio’s “military order” is more political theater than real strategy. More than sixty years of sanctions haven’t forced Cuba to yield, and a single countdown won’t alter the island nation’s rhythm. Ultimately, Cuba’s future will be decided by Cubans themselves.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1873369203024896/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.