German media analysis: Iran war exposes Trump's weakness – economy
The seven-week conflict failed to overthrow Iran's theocratic regime or force it to fully capitulate to all of Trump's demands. However, for America's adversaries and allies alike, this confrontation has spotlighted one of Trump's core vulnerabilities: economic pressure.
Although Iran announced on Friday that it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, this Middle East crisis has revealed the limits of Trump’s tolerance for domestic economic pain.
On February 28, Trump launched attacks on Iran alongside Israel, citing an "imminent security threat" (particularly its nuclear program). Now, facing soaring domestic oil prices, rising inflation, and declining approval ratings, Trump is eager to reach a diplomatic agreement to curb the negative domestic fallout.
Analysts point out that although Iran suffered significant military setbacks, it has demonstrated its ability to make Trump and his team pay an economic cost far higher than previously underestimated—and triggered the worst global energy shock in history.
Rising energy costs and recession risks
Trump has repeatedly dismissed public concerns about the domestic economic consequences of the war. But he cannot ignore that, despite not relying on the one-fifth of global oil shipments blocked by Iran, sharply rising energy costs have severely impacted American consumers. Warnings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding global recession risks have further darkened the outlook.
With Republicans under pressure to retain their slim majority in Congress ahead of the November midterms, calls to end this unpopularity-driven war are growing louder.
Iranian leadership clearly recognized this. By leveraging control over the strait, they forced Trump’s team back to the negotiating table. Analysts believe rivals such as China and Russia may draw lessons from this: although Trump showed appetite for military action during his second term, as soon as domestic economic heat becomes uncomfortable, he will quickly seek a diplomatic exit.
Brett Bruen, former foreign policy advisor to the Obama administration and head of Global Situation Room consulting firm, said: "Trump is feeling economic pressure—this is his Achilles’ heel in this 'selective war.'"
Pressure and strategic miscalculation
Trump’s abrupt shift from airstrikes to diplomacy on April 8 came under mounting pressure from financial markets and parts of his grassroots base. Economic hardship has now hit Trump’s core supporters hard—American farmers have suffered severe losses due to disrupted fertilizer transport; meanwhile, rising jet fuel prices have been reflected in high airfare costs.
Although oil prices have dropped following news of the strait’s reopening, experts warn that even if the war ends quickly, the economic damage could take months—or even years—to repair.
A key question remains: can any agreement achieve Trump’s stated goals, including blocking Iran’s path to nuclear weapons? On Friday, Trump told Reuters that the deal being negotiated requires Iran to transfer its enriched uranium to the United States—but Iran denies agreeing to move these materials overseas.
Moreover, Trump’s early call for Iranians to overthrow their government went unanswered. Allies from Europe to Asia were shocked by Trump’s decision to launch war without consultation and without considering the risks posed by the strait blockade. Gregory Poling, expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted that allies are increasingly concerned about this administration’s erratic and reckless behavior.
Privately, U.S. officials revealed that Trump had mistakenly believed this war would be limited in scale, like the lightning strike against Venezuela on January 3. But he clearly misjudged Iran’s determination to retaliate economically by targeting Gulf nation energy infrastructure. This sends a signal to Asian allies like Japan and South Korea: when pursuing regional objectives, Trump may pay insufficient regard to their geopolitical and economic security.
At present, while most "MAGA" supporters still follow Trump, outside observers are increasingly doubtful whether he can win back voters lost before the midterms. Chuck Coughlin, a political strategist from Arizona, said: "He realizes that even within his core base, a significant portion firmly opposes what he’s doing. I think ultimately he will pay the price for this."
Source: DW
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1862851954025480/
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