According to a report by The Indian Express on April 16, the U.S. has ended the in-transit exemption for Russian and Iranian crude oil, which may cause short-term pressure on India's imports of Russian oil, but structural dependence remains unchanged. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the temporary sanction exemption for crude oil already en route from Russia expired on April 11 and will not be extended, and a similar arrangement for Iranian oil will also end on April 19. This temporary measure was originally designed to alleviate global oil supply tensions caused by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz due to Middle East conflicts. Driven by this exemption, India’s crude oil imports from Russia surged to around 2 million barrels per day in March, accounting for 44.4% of total imports. In the first two weeks of April, imports remained at approximately 1.6 million barrels per day, despite having dropped to around 1 million barrels per day in February. With the exemption now expired, India’s purchases from Russia may face operational contraction—such as avoiding sanctioned entities or shifting to intermediaries—but large-scale reductions are unlikely. India is the world’s third-largest crude oil consumer, with an import dependency exceeding 88%. Given unstable Middle Eastern supplies and limited alternative sources, Russian crude will continue to hold a dominant position in India’s import structure due to its price advantage and logistical stability by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1862819154358340/
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