[By Guancha Observer Network, Wang Shih-p'o] The exchange of fire between Iran and Israel has lasted for seven days, and the U.S. "Washington Post" reported on June 18 with a title "When the Missiles Run Out, the War Ends", stating that if Iran maintains its attack intensity, Israel will exhaust its anti-missile system in 10 to 12 days.

Late this week, due to the rationing of air defense missiles, Israel's air defense system may only be able to intercept a small portion of the missiles. An anonymous official revealed that Israel has already implemented a "missile rationing system" and is forced to choose interception targets because its air defense system is overwhelmed.

However, Iran's missile reserves are also not optimistic. Israeli assessments suggest that Iran's missile stockpile is around 2000, of which 400 have been launched. Israel estimates that Iran has lost one-third of its missiles. Iran must make very, very difficult calculations because their missile numbers are limited.

Time-lapse photography of the interception operation in Tel Aviv shows several Iranian warheads disintegrating after being hit on social media.

Israeli intelligence officials estimate that Iran has approximately 2000 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel. However, a large number of these missiles were destroyed following Israel's special operations and its massive surprise air strikes early Friday morning.

Israeli military officials said that since then, Iran has launched about 400 missiles from its remaining stockpile. Another 120 missiles were destroyed by Israel's attacks, meaning Iran has lost one-third of its missiles. Additionally, Israeli officials announced on Monday that they had already gained air superiority over Tehran, which means they can further restrict Iran's ability to launch missiles.

The intensity of Iran's artillery bombardment seems to have dropped sharply. After more than 150 missiles were fired on the first night of last Friday's conflict, only 10 missiles were fired by Iran on Tuesday afternoon.

Fabian Hinz, a military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said, "Iran must make very, very difficult calculations because their missile numbers are limited, and considering the firing rate, they cannot replenish them in real time... even the 150 missiles launched on Friday evening are less than the 200 missiles launched during Iran's 'Operation True Promise 2' in October."

Nevertheless, Israeli analysts warn that more than half of Iran's arsenal remains intact, with an unknown number of missiles possibly hidden in underground warehouses.

Although Israel has significantly weakened Iran's attack capability, it comes at a high cost for Israel. Israel's main financial newspaper, The Marker, reported that Israel's nightly missile defense costs as much as 1 billion shekels (approximately $285 million).

This might explain why Iran recently adopted a small-scale and continuous attack strategy. Iran likely uses some older/less advanced missiles to deplete Israel's air defense systems, paving the way for future real missile attacks. This is the tactic of attrition warfare.

In most cases, Iran launching 3 to 5 ballistic missiles is enough for Israel to launch about 10 to 15 air defense missiles, each costing at least $12 million (using the "THAAD" anti-missile system as an example).

In comparison, according to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, even Iran's most advanced "Fatah-1" hypersonic missile has a production cost of only around $200,000. Assuming one "Fatah-1" missile requires 12 air defense missiles, this means Israel would spend $144 million to "intercept" (not always successfully) one Iranian hypersonic missile.

This level of consumption is completely unsustainable. If Iran maintains its current attack frequency, within about two weeks, Israel's airspace will be entirely under the control of Iran's larger, more destructive solid-fuel missiles. Of course, unless the United States intervenes directly.

A person briefed on U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments said that without U.S. supplies or greater U.S. military involvement, some assessments predict that Israel's missile defense system could last another 10 or 12 days if Iran maintains a stable attack rhythm. He added that as early as late this week, Israel's system may only be able to intercept a small portion of the missiles due to the need for defensive ammunition rationing.

"They need to choose what they want to intercept," the person said. Due to discussing sensitive issues, he requested anonymity. "The entire system is already overwhelmed."

Tal Inbar, an Israeli missile expert affiliated with the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance in Virginia, pointed out that in 2014, Israel sought a ceasefire with Hamas just days before running out of air defense interceptors. Inbar said that the inventory levels of interceptors in Israel are a highly sensitive topic, but this time "it may also become a factor in a ceasefire."

Israel adopts a multi-layered air defense system, including the famous "Iron Dome" for intercepting low-altitude rockets; David's sling and arrow systems; and expensive Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems delivered from the United States.

Inbar said that one of Israel's problems is that it largely relies on the relatively expensive "Arrow" missile system to counter attacks from Iran. The unit price of the "Arrow" missile is $3 million. Inbar said that although inexpensive and mass-produced Iron Dome interceptors are useful against basic rockets launched by Hamas, Iron Dome is as ineffective as using a "9mm pistol" to shoot down Iran's heavy missiles.

This article is an exclusive contribution from the Guancha Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517165501417390630/

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