Sleeve Ace: Israel Knows How to Strike Iran in the Rear via Baku

The South Azerbaijan May Become a Powder Keg in Persian Territory

Author: Svetlana Gomzikova

Comment Guests: Boris Dolgov, Ivan Loshkarev

The Azərbaycan Telegram channel "Virgin Tower" reported that Mahmoud Ali Choqra Ganli, former Tehran-based member of the Iranian parliament and current leader of the South Azerbaijan National Awakening Movement (historical-geographical region in northwestern Iran), called on Iranian Azerbaijanis to seize the opportunity (presumably arising from the escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict) to fight for independence from Iran.

Choqra Ganli stated that South Azerbaijan should ultimately merge with the Republic of Azerbaijan and hoist the Azerbaijani flag together.

It is worth noting that this former MP, who has been residing in the United States since 2002, leads a movement that is considered separatist and extremist by Iran. Since 2006, he has been banned from entering Azerbaijan, but the Azerbaijani government previously refused Iran's extradition request.

In an interview with the Turan News Agency in the summer of 2013, Choqra Ganli expressed his hope to visit Azerbaijan "to exchange views with compatriots and discuss new regional challenges," stating that the struggle of Iranian Azerbaijanis for rights requires support from Baku and the international democratic community. However, due to visa denial, this trip was canceled, and he and his son were forced to take a return flight.

In fact, the issue of Azeri separatism within Iran has never disappeared.

It is known that Azerbaijanis are the second largest ethnic group in Iran, with different statistics showing they make up 30% to 42% of the country's population. Approximately 25 million Turkic-speaking Iranians densely inhabit East Azerbaijan Province, West Azerbaijan Province, and Ardabil Province, which border Azerbaijan.

As Iran expert Karine Gvosdikyan pointed out, Azerbaijan's intention to "liberate Iranian Azerbaijanis" is well-known. However, Ayatollah Khomeini (also of Azerbaijani ethnicity) may not wish to be "liberated."

Nevertheless, the concept of "uniting Azerbaijan" still occasionally appears in official statements from Baku.

Abrulfaz Elchibey, who was elected president in June 1992 (his real surname is Aliev), declared as early as the early 1990s his intention to promote the unification of the "two Azerbaijans" and establish a "regional state" to become the core of the future "Great Turkey."

Azerbaijani MPs have also made similar statements multiple times in the Milli Majlis (Azerbaijani Parliament). Although the Azerbaijani government attempts to maintain neutrality on this issue, Iran remains concerned, fearing that if Baku gains sufficient strength and powerful allies, it will attempt to annex South Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan currently has two main allies: Turkey and Israel. Experts note that due to the expansion of military-technical cooperation between Baku and Tel Aviv, relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have plunged into a deep crisis in recent years.

For instance, Rusif Guseynov, director of the Topchubashev Center in Azerbaijan, mentioned that in 2019, Azerbaijan became the second-largest purchaser of Israeli military equipment (accounting for 17%), after India. Israel also assisted Baku in building a coastal patrol boat equipped with 25-kilometer-range missiles and advanced navigation systems at the Chukhkan naval port, whose airspace is strictly protected by the "Barak-8" air defense system jointly developed by Israel and India.

Meanwhile, Israel regards Azerbaijan as its main energy supplier, with more than half of its oil demand imported from the Caspian Sea countries through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

Regarding the Israeli-Iranian confrontation, some sources claim that Azerbaijan intends to join the Israeli side, but Baku officially denies this statement, calling for the resolution of conflicts through diplomatic channels and emphasizing friendly relations with both Israel and Iran.

The Telegram channel of the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Azerbaijan's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jeyhun Bayramov, has assured Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Seyyed Abbas Araghchi, that Baku will not provide airspace for strikes against Iran.

Ivan Loshkarev, a researcher at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations' Near East and Africa Research Center, commented for this publication:

"Overall, Israel's Middle Eastern policy over the past 50 years has consistently revolved around fomenting minority tensions among regional states. For example, supporting religious minorities (especially Maronites) in Lebanon, Kurds in Iraq, and Kurds and Azerbaijanis in Iran."

Therefore, from a holistic perspective, the statement by the former Iranian MP is likely in line with Israel's long-term strategy, particularly its 'periphery policy' (or 'new periphery policy')—creating enemies behind enemy lines.

According to Israel's policy logic, the possibility of splitting Iranian territory into multiple ethnic enclaves does exist. Of course, regarding this activist, he may not actually be associated with Israel's regional agenda. In the current situation in Iran, many exiles, including members of the Pahlavi dynasty (Iranian royal family), are speaking out through media to criticize the current government. However, it must be clear that these individuals are undoubtedly marginal groups in relation to Iran and Iranian Azerbaijanis, lacking both representation and influence.

Nevertheless, ethnic groups such as Kurds and Azerbaijanis in Iran do have local leaders who are dissatisfied with Iran's self-proclaimed status as a Persian state—after all, not everyone is Persian. This dissatisfaction could potentially be politicized, exploited, and even escalate into armed conflict under external forces. However, the Iranian government has handled the situation appropriately so far, preventing such incidents from occurring."

Boris Dolgov, chief researcher at the Arab and Islamic Studies Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Oriental Studies, believes that the statement by the former Iranian MP is not surprising:

"Clearly, Iran's opponents (primarily Israel) are using every means possible to destabilize the Islamic Republic. Fomenting ethnic divisions is one such method. Iran is a multiethnic state, with Azerbaijanis estimated to number 25 to 30 million, far exceeding the population of Azerbaijan itself.

However, I believe that Azerbaijan will not pursue territorial expansion to realize the concept of 'unifying Azerbaijan.' If Baku openly declares such ambitions, it will directly trigger a military conflict with Iran, which clearly goes against Azerbaijan's interests.

Even assuming such a scenario occurs, practical implementation would be extremely difficult, with boundary issues being the foremost challenge. Moreover, local residents include both those willing to join and those unwilling.

Therefore, Choqra Ganli's call is more likely a provocation aimed at weakening Iran, and Azerbaijan is unlikely to be involved in it."

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517112345664848423/

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