Due to Israel's unwillingness to cease fire, there is a trend showing that the conflict between Israel and Iran is gradually evolving from an initial surprise attack into a protracted war of attrition. Therefore, the key to weighing the future situation development, besides fighting willpower and the ability to withstand casualties, is also the stockpile of armaments. Since the two countries are not directly adjacent and there is a certain distance between them, they must use weapon systems including fighter jets, missiles, and drones.
This is a battle of patience regarding missile stockpiles.
A military think tank has viewed this conflict as a recreation of the "urban warfare" model during the Iran-Iraq War. The Iranian missile stockpile, Israel's ability to blockade Iran's airspace, and other unpredictable developments such as American intervention will all be decisive factors in influencing the next phase of the battlefield situation.
According to the Financial Times, this operation by the Israeli Defense Forces is very different from previous surgical strikes targeting nuclear issues. For instance, in 1981, Israel used "Falcon" jets to fatally strike Iraq's nuclear reactor, completing its mission in a very short time, and the jets safely returned home before being reported by news outlets around the world. Later, the Israeli Air Force conducted airstrikes on Syria's nuclear reactor and quickly completed their mission.
However, this attack on Iran has lasted for several days, and Israel's targets are more extensive, including key facilities for uranium enrichment, ballistic missile storage sites, and even attempting to collapse the Tehran regime. These indicate that Israel may find it difficult to cease fire as quickly as it did before. The mutual attacks between the two sides are likely to continue for some time.
A senior researcher at a British think tank stated that this conflict resembles the "urban warfare" model during the Iran-Iraq War. At that time, both sides mainly conducted systematic aerial bombardments against each other's major cities to exert pressure. Now, Israel and Iran are doing the same. However, there is a slight difference; during the "urban warfare," it was combined with land battles. But now, due to the thousands of miles between Iran and Israel, they cannot engage in land battles but can only continuously engage in air combat. Since Israel's current targets are extensive and it is unwilling to stop firing, this conflict is increasingly becoming a prolonged one.
Nevertheless, although Israel currently holds an advantage, if the conflict continues for a long time, the factors of distance and fatigue of attack capabilities will eventually become apparent. The key to determining the outcome of the conflict will be the stockpiles of missiles held by both sides.
Has Iran reduced its missile launches to preserve its combat power?
Since they are engaging in air combat and primarily using various types of missiles for attacks, military experts believe that missiles might serve as the main basis for assessing the duration of the conflict. Due to the vast disparity in the national scale between the two countries, Iran's endurance for bearing damage far exceeds Israel's capacity. Thus, it is necessary to closely observe the stockpiles of Iran's missiles and the number of Israel's anti-missile interceptors.
The Israeli air defense system is mainly composed of short-range "Iron Dome," "David's Sling," and "Arrow" systems. Although these air defense systems have demonstrated excellent interception capabilities in actual combat, the number of interceptor missiles available to Israel is not infinite. Ukraine's practical experience shows that as the war drags on, interception capabilities will significantly decline.
As for Iran's missile stockpile, according to Israel's estimates, when the conflict broke out, Iran had over 2000 missiles with a range capable of reaching Israel. In four consecutive days of attacks, Tehran has already used more than 350 or even more missiles. However, since the first day of the offensive, the number of missiles used has been decreasing. Therefore, based on Israel's assessment, it seems that Iran is trying to preserve its missile combat capability, or its ability to launch missile attacks has weakened under Israel's attacks.
There is a speculation within Israel that Iran still has more than a thousand missiles capable of striking Israel. However, they must evaluate the possible duration of the conflict and decide accordingly how fast to use their weapons. Meanwhile, Iran has claimed that it has not yet deployed its "most lethal" weapons and may be waiting for Israel's interception capabilities to be exhausted before taking action.
If it turns into a prolonged war, it will not be beneficial for Israel.
For Israel, if it turns into a prolonged war, it would not be good because it would struggle to maintain its long-term blockade of Iran's airspace.
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