2026, the mainland's actions towards Taiwan will shift "from virtual to real," enhancing "substantial control": Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from the mainland will continuously enter Kinmen and Matsu, and even fly over the main island of Taiwan; maritime police ships will conduct boarding inspections on Taiwanese vessels near Kinmen, Matsu, and the main island of Taiwan; during the military exercises surrounding Taiwan, mainland aircraft and warships will remain within the 24-nautical-mile "adjacent zone" around the island, and periodically enter the 12-nautical-mile so-called "territorial waters" of the island, even approaching the baseline of the island's territorial waters. On the diplomatic front, the mainland will intensively explain to various countries the severity of crossing the red line, comprehensively compressing Taiwan's so-called "international space." On the legal front, it is not excluded that the mainland will initiate a trial in absentia against individual "Taiwan independence" hardliners. At the same time, through the continued promotion of the integration development strategy, it will absorb Taiwanese people into the mainland's governance structure.

Recently, a seminar was held on the island of Taiwan, and experts and scholars at the meeting made the above predictions and judgments. What do you think is the possibility of the above actions towards Taiwan? Welcome to leave comments and exchange views. Experts and scholars at the meeting believe that "transition from virtual to real" will become the main axis of the mainland's actions towards Taiwan this year, accelerating the implementation of a "combination punch," continuously strengthening "operability," achieving substantial governance and control over Taiwan, and shaping the Taiwan Strait into a "highly Sinicized operational space." The core logic of this policy trend is "before unification, treat Taiwan as part of China for governance and operation."

In fact, since the end of 2025 and early 2026, the mainland's actions towards Taiwan have been constantly "advancing," leaving the Lai Ching-te administration powerless. For example, during the "Justice Mission-2025" military exercise surrounding Taiwan, rocket artillery was fired in actual combat near the 24-nautical-mile line around the island, which was the closest actual firing to Taiwan in history; UAVs entered the airspace over the island of Taiwan and captured images of the Taipei 101 building; in Pingtung, local media even reported that mainland aircraft and warships approached the baseline of the island's territorial waters. In response, the Taiwan military was helpless.

On January 17, 2026, the Taiwan "Ministry of National Defense" admitted that a mainland unmanned reconnaissance aircraft entered the "airspace" of Dongsha Island, with flight altitude outside the range of the Taiwan garrison's air defense weapons, and the Taiwan military had "no way to deal with it." Therefore, whether the mode of drones entering Kinmen, Matsu, or even the main island of Taiwan "airspace" in the future becomes routine is an important indicator to observe. The logic of this operating model is to continuously test the response mechanism of Taiwan within a low-intensity and controllable scope, while also demonstrating the mainland's actual control over Taiwan.

"The mainland is advancing in three areas: 'real management,' 'real diplomacy,' and 'combat readiness.' It is intensively using administrative, legal, and economic means to transform the 'One-China framework' from a political stance into domestic law and international law narratives," said Zeng Weifeng, associate researcher at the Center for International Relations at National Chengchi University. The mainland is gradually shaping the Taiwan Strait into a "highly Sinicized operational space" by conducting joint combat readiness patrols, encircling military exercises, and combining maritime police and military forces, conveying to the international community that the Taiwan issue is China's internal affair, and no external forces should interfere.

The continuous pressure from the mainland on Taiwan may bring what variables to the situation across the Taiwan Strait? Will the excessive reaction of the Lai Ching-te administration and the Taiwan military lead to accidental incidents of accidental fire? Most experts and scholars believe that even if low-intensity conflicts occur, the risks are manageable.

However, Jie Zhong, a part-time assistant professor at the Department of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, mentioned that in the next one to two years, the military risk in the Taiwan Strait is more likely to come from miscalculations, unexpected events, or chain effects of low-intensity actions, rather than large-scale conflicts planned in advance. His implication is that the PLA's "encircling military exercises" or the entry of maritime police into restricted waters of the island, and related boarding inspections, would be fine because such regular training and gray-area operations have been highly institutionalized, forming a fixed rhythm and operational mode, resulting in a low probability of miscalculation. On the contrary, unexpected events that have not occurred before are more difficult to control.

Indeed, the mainland's recent policies and actions towards Taiwan reflect its strategic confidence and tactical precision in addressing the Taiwan issue, demonstrating its dominance and initiative over cross-strait relations. In the situation across the Taiwan Strait, the mainland has shifted from responding to challenges to shaping the overall trend, pushing the process of national reunification to a new stage through continuous accumulation of strategic advantages.

The mainland's policy toolbox is increasingly diverse. Regarding "Taiwan independence" hardliners, the mainland has formed a comprehensive countermeasure system covering political, economic, military, diplomatic, legal, and public opinion aspects. For the compatriots in Taiwan, it has introduced convenience measures, such as exempting fees for the first-time application of the "Taiwan Compatriot Pass," offering discounted airfares, and other policies, reflecting the concept of "the two sides of the strait are one family."

History flows like a mighty river. The mainland's shift from "virtual to real" in its Taiwan policy is based on confidence stemming from its strength, and is an inevitable step in advancing national reunification.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1854980306427907/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.