【By Observer News, Qi Qian】

Can US President Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize he has long desired? The answer is about to be revealed.

However, according to a report by the UK's The Guardian on October 9, after the results are announced on local time October 10, Trump is likely to be greatly disappointed, as most Nobel experts and Norwegian observers believe his chances of winning the award are extremely low.

"As the result announcement is only hours away, Norwegian politicians are preparing for potential consequences," the report said. It is believed that if Trump does not receive the award, he will be furious and turn his anger toward Norway. Analysts speculate that an upset Trump may take retaliatory actions such as increasing tariffs or demanding higher military spending, even declaring Norway as an "enemy country."

US cable news network CNN mentioned that previously, both within and outside the US considered the probability of Trump winning the award very low. However, after the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement was announced, the possibility of Trump receiving the Nobel Peace Prize "suddenly increased."

But it is worth noting that the Norwegian Nobel Committee clearly stated on September 9 that its members had already decided on this year's peace prize winner on Monday of this week. This time point was several days before the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement was reached.

The Guardian pointed out that considering the timing and the independence of the Nobel Committee, most Nobel experts and Norwegian observers still believe that Trump's chances of winning the award remain extremely low. This has raised concerns in Norway about possible reactions from Trump in the future.

Kristi Bergstø, leader of the Norwegian Socialist Left Party and spokesperson for foreign policy, said that Norway must "be prepared for anything."

"Trump is pushing the US towards extremes, attacking freedom of speech, allowing masked agents to kidnap people in broad daylight, and attacking institutions and courts," Bergstø, after listing a series of policies of Trump at home, worriedly told The Guardian, "When a country's president is so volatile and authoritarian, we certainly must be prepared for anything that may happen."

He further said: "The Nobel Committee is an independent institution, and the Norwegian government has no involvement in the decision of the award. But I am not sure whether Trump knows this." He again emphasized: "We must be prepared for anything he might do."

In September, Israeli protesters held up portraits of Trump outside the US embassy, demanding the quick release of hostages. Israeli media

Trump has long openly stated that he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. CNN mentioned that Trump is very eager to win the award, hoping to become the fifth US president to receive it, following Woodrow Wilson, Theodore Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, and Obama.

In July this year, there were reports that Trump called the Norwegian Finance Minister and former NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg to inquire about the Nobel Prize.

On September 23, Trump delivered a speech at the United Nations headquarters in New York, saying, "Everyone says I should receive the Nobel Peace Prize for each of these achievements," Trump continued in his usual style, "I'm not concerned about the award; it's about saving lives."

Trump's speech at the UN General Assembly, screenshot from Twitter

Ariel Høie, leader of the Norwegian Green Party, said that the independence of the Nobel Committee is the source of the award's credibility.

"The peace prize is won through sustained commitment, not through social media rants or intimidation," he said. "Trump's support for the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is good. Any step that ends the suffering in Gaza is welcome. But a late contribution cannot erase his record of promoting violence and division over the years."

Christian Bergh, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, said that the peace prize winner has already been decided several days ago. He said the decision is non-political, "and it is non-negotiable."

Harald Støhle, a columnist and analyst for The Guardian, speculated that if Trump retaliates, it could take forms such as imposing tariffs, demanding increased military spending, or even declaring Norway as an "enemy country."

"He is so unpredictable," Støhle said when talking about Trump. "I don't want to use the word 'fear,' but I have a feeling that the future situation may be highly challenging. It is difficult for us to explain to Trump or others like him that the Nobel Committee is completely independent, because these people simply do not respect this independence."

Støhle added that if Trump wins the award, it would be the biggest surprise in the history of the Peace Prize.

Nina Gregor, director of the Oslo Peace Research Institute, a Norwegian think tank, believes that this year's Nobel Peace Prize candidates include the Sudan Emergency Room, the Committee to Protect Journalists, and the International Women's Network for Peace and Freedom.

"Although Trump contributed to ending the Gaza war, it is too early to say whether he can bring lasting peace to Gaza," Gregor said. "Trump's withdrawal from multiple international organizations, his desire for Denmark to take over Greenland, and his continuous violations of basic democratic rights in the country are incompatible with the spirit of the Nobel Prize."

This article is an exclusive piece by Observer News. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559416733476422179/

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