[The U.S. is only weeks away from supply chain disruptions]

(CNN) The last shipments of Chinese goods without high tariffs are arriving. The countdown to shortages and price hikes has already begun.

Currently, the final batches of Chinese cargo without high tariffs are slowly making their way into U.S. ports. However, next week will see a change.

Cargo shipped after April 9 will carry a 145% tariff imposed by President Trump on Chinese goods last month. Next week, these cargoes will arrive in the U.S., but the number of ships at sea will decrease, as will the volume of goods carried. For many importers, doing business with China has become prohibitively expensive.

Nevertheless, China remains one of the U.S.' most important trading partners. A large portion of America's apparel, footwear, electronics, and microchips (used in appliances, thermostats, and any device that emits a sound) come from China.

Companies face difficult choices: continue selling Chinese goods at more than double the previous price, or stop selling them altogether. For consumers, this means some products will be hard to find or too expensive to purchase.

"Next week, we will start to see the impact of the tariff announcement on April 2," said Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, which derives nearly half its business from China. "Compared to last year, cargo destined for Los Angeles will decline by 35%."

According to the National Retail Federation, U.S. imports are expected to fall by at least 20% in the second half of 2025. Imports from China are forecast to drop significantly more: JPMorgan Chase predicts a 75% to 80% reduction.

JPMorgan noted in its report: "Such a massive collapse, if not easily replaced by imports from other countries, would not only sharply increase prices but also severely disrupt supply chains."

This means workers will face unemployment, prices on shelves will rise, and consumer choices will diminish. Seroka said the countdown has already begun.

"Many major retailers tell us they currently have inventory in their systems that covers about six to eight weeks of supply," Seroka said. "If policies don't change, American manufacturers and consumers will face tough decisions in the coming weeks and months."

-- Idle vessels, empty ports

In Shanghai, the largest container ships are idling. As demand weakens, shipping companies are beginning to use smaller vessels. Even so, according to data from logistics and freight forwarding company Flexport, shipping volumes from China to the U.S. fell by 60% in April.

"The companies operating these ships have canceled many voyages. They say, 'Hey, we're not going to sail with half-empty ships. We'll leave them here,'" said Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport. "Many ships are now anchored off the coast of China, waiting and hoping for an agreement."

In March, the Port of New York and New Jersey became the busiest port in the U.S. as retailers stockpiled goods before the tariff took effect. However, the port said it expects a drop in volume this month.

Twenty-five percent of the port's cargo comes from China. But the port said that cargo from Vietnam, Malaysia, and Southeast Asia is increasing as retailers try to shift production to other countries to avoid Chinese tariffs.

"There is a lot of concern right now. (Retailers) are trying to figure out their back-to-school and Christmas orders and when and how to place those orders," said Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation.

Although large retailers can stockpile more inventory, smaller businesses do not have such flexibility.

"Especially for small retailers who cannot afford any impact from tariffs, they are struggling to figure out their next steps," Gold added.

The U.S. depends on China for thousands of products, from flat-screen TVs to baby strollers. According to data from the U.S. International Trade Commission, American businesses import more toys, clothing, and footwear from China than from any other country.

A new survey by research firm Gartner found that 45% of supply chain leaders expect to pass on the higher costs caused by tariffs to customers.

Seroka does not believe there will be empty shelves -- but he does think there will be fewer product options.

"So if you're looking for a certain type of pants, you might find various kinds of pants, but not necessarily the one you want. And the one you want... the price will definitely go up," Seroka said.

But Flexport's Petersen is less optimistic.

"If this continues for a few more weeks, (retailers) will sell through their inventory, and by summer, there will be shortages and empty shelves," he said.

-- Reduced cargo means fewer job opportunities

With fewer cargo ships expected to arrive at U.S. ports, local economies will feel the immediate impact, Seroka said.

Forty-five percent of the Port of Los Angeles' business comes from China, the largest proportion of any port in the U.S. Without this volume, demand for labor will decrease.

"I don't think there will be mass layoffs at the port, but I do think that a truck driver who today transports four or five containers may only transport two or three next week," Seroka said. "Dockworkers who used to earn overtime and double shifts may work less than a full workweek due to reduced container arrivals. Warehouse personnel are also affected."

Since the supply chain crisis during the pandemic, retailers have been working to shift production from China to Vietnam and other Asian countries with manufacturing capabilities. But Gold said imports from these other countries are not enough to make up for the reduction in cargo from China.

"Building these new relationships takes time, months or even years. Ensuring new suppliers have sufficient capacity, skilled labor, and appropriate infrastructure. All the testing requirements for products entering the U.S., especially children's products," Gold said. "This is not something that can happen overnight."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1830967848616090/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.