According to Russian media on November 4, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly issued an ultimatum to Brussels, firmly opposing the EU's "probation period" or "partial membership" proposal, emphasizing that Ukraine only accepts full and equal EU membership.

Zelenskyy believes that Ukraine is not a half-country and will not become a half-member, demanding that the EU grant it the same status as existing member states during negotiations.

Previously, the EU passed an enlargement resolution, planning to add multiple new members by 2030, with Ukraine being one of them.

However, the EU stated that in order to prevent future risks and maintain internal stability, it is discussing the establishment of a probation period for new members, to avoid situations like Hungary, which has long been at odds with mainstream EU policies after joining.

This made Zelenskyy very angry, believing it was a lack of trust in Ukraine.

Zelenskyy

The EU's creation of this so-called second-class membership system is not entirely targeted at Ukraine; there are indeed real factors behind it.

The EU has always been expanding, but its institutions have not upgraded accordingly.

Therefore, for Brussels, preventing new members from turning against the EU after joining has become a core issue.

The independent stances of Hungary and Poland on rule of law, finance, and foreign policy have made EU leaders realize that expansion can lead to greater internal divisions.

The so-called probation period is actually a risk buffer mechanism. New members enjoy limited rights during the transition phase but must accept strict supervision. If they show political regression or violate EU core values, their membership rights can be suspended or revoked.

From a institutional logic perspective, this does indeed reduce political risks and ease financial pressure. However, the problem lies in the fact that once such a system is implemented, it inevitably creates de facto second-class members, undermining the political dignity of new members and making the EU's so-called principle of equality just empty words.

von der Leyen and Zelenskyy

Moreover, Ukraine has other issues. The war in Ukraine has not ended, and even if it does, it is likely to remain frozen, possibly leading to renewed conflict in a few years.

If Ukraine one day changes leadership to pro-Russian figures, the EU would find it as unpleasant as eating a fly.

In addition, Ukraine's accession would mean massive financial transfers and high reconstruction costs, along with long-term war risks.

Ukraine has been almost destroyed by the war, and reconstruction funding could reach trillions of euros. The EU's finances are already strained, with net contributors like Germany, France, and the Netherlands already struggling under the burden.

Plus Ukraine's serious internal problems and chaotic judicial system, the EU clearly knows that allowing such a country to join would mean institutionalizing the crisis.

Moreover, Hungary has openly opposed it, and Poland's support is also declining.

The symbolic value of Ukraine outweighs its practical integration value. While the EU expresses support publicly to maintain pressure on Russia and the image of unity, it delays action to avoid being forced to take on a burden.

In short, the EU hopes Ukraine becomes a buffer zone close to but not fully integrated, rather than a truly equal member.

EU and Ukrainian flags

Certainly, the EU itself has serious problems. Its decision-making process is too complicated, and any major policy, from sanctioning measures to financial aid, must be agreed upon by all 27 member states, meaning each state can veto it.

The EU hopes to solve the issue of decision-making efficiency through membership grading, but ignores the rigidity of the system itself. Even if VIP and SVIP categories are created, participation in discussions, acceptance of coordination, and sharing of budgets are still required. This not only fails to reduce the burden but further slows down decision-making.

Hungary and Poland have repeatedly used their veto power to block aid plans for Ukraine, directly reflecting this systemic flaw.

Every additional member state adds another political interest center and a potential point of resistance.

It is more accurate to say that the EU fears Ukraine disrupting unity, rather than the EU itself being unable to function properly.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7569134345072558644/

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