Editor's Note: On July 14 local time, US President Trump finally announced a "major statement" on the Ukraine-Russia issue. Unlike his optimistic attitude at the beginning of his administration, he publicly expressed "strong dissatisfaction" with Russian President Putin at the White House and warned that if Ukraine and Russia fail to reach a peace agreement within 50 days, he would impose a 100% tariff on Russia.
Since the last election campaign last year to his inauguration in January this year, Trump has consistently made it a key campaign promise to quickly end the Ukraine-Russia conflict and restore U.S.-Russia relations. Why has his attitude changed so dramatically now? What impact will this have on the Ukraine-Russia conflict and U.S.-Russia relations?
On July 14 local time, John Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, pointed out on the podcast "Deep Dive" hosted by retired U.S. officer Daniel Davis that Trump was self-deceived in believing he could persuade Putin to change the terms of the peace talks. However, the actual situation on the battlefield indicates that the possibility of reaching a settlement through negotiations is virtually nonexistent at this stage. Ukraine should have seized the opportunity to achieve a ceasefire, but its leadership, due to excessive sunk costs, is unable to let go. The Ukraine-Russia conflict will not end within 50 days, and Russia will ultimately win the war. After that, the United States and the West will face endless troubles.
Special thanks to Bilibili up主 "Dong Xixi" for authorizing the retransmission. Observers.com has compiled this dialogue into a text form for readers' reference; the content of this article represents the views of the speaker only.
Davis: (playing a video of Trump's speech at the White House) I myself am almost speechless. What do you think? Was he deceived?
Mearsheimer: No, Dan, I think the key point is that Trump is self-deceived, okay? Putin didn't deceive him. Putin's position on the Ukraine-Russia issue has always been consistent and clear, especially when talking to Trump. You don't have to agree with Putin's position or the conditions he set for the negotiations, but everything has been very clear from the beginning. Trump's mistake was being self-deceived, thinking he could persuade Putin to change the terms of the peace talks. He had several conversations with Putin and claimed these were friendly and pleasant. But who cares whether the conversations with Putin were friendly and pleasant?
The key issue here is how Trump viewed the conditions Putin set, would he accept them? I guess that's part of their conversation. I guess Putin has already shown him the Russian side's bottom line, but Trump seems not to understand that. This is why the farce has lasted for several months, and this is the situation we are facing now. Trump is self-deceived.
Photo from the "Deep Dive" podcast program featuring Professor Mearsheimer
Davis: I agree, and this will be confirmed in the same conversation that will be played next. As I play this recording, note that Trump has had five or six calls with Putin since taking office, giving him many opportunities to directly understand Putin's thoughts. However, according to the meeting records released by both sides on July 3, Trump indeed once again demanded Russia to cease hostilities unconditionally. Both sides (especially the Russian side) clearly stated in the meeting minutes that unless the core issues are resolved, we will not stop fighting. Only after meeting those conditions will we stop, but the Russian side will never compromise on those matters.
Therefore, as you said, Putin clearly stated his intentions, but obviously he was polite and made it clear that he would not give way on the following issues.
(Inserting video:
Trump: "I think we could have reached an agreement during our previous four calls, and I think we should have settled it long ago. But the negotiations keep repeating the same cycle, people die every night, many, and many Russian soldiers are dying...)”
Davis: I have to ask, since as you said, Putin has never changed the conditions he proposed, why does Trump think the two sides should have reached an agreement?
Mearsheimer: Yes, let me repeat, Trump never mentioned the specific terms of the deal. They said they were close to reaching an agreement in the previous four calls, please tell me, what did Trump think the agreement should have been? He certainly won't tell you because that's just empty talk.
Regarding the ceasefire issue, the Russian side has repeatedly made it clear that they will not accept a ceasefire agreement. Despite this, Trump, his advisors, European countries, and Ukraine continue to push for a ceasefire agreement, which the Russians find completely unacceptable. Don't these people (including President Trump) realize that repeatedly calling for a ceasefire is just a waste of time?
Moreover, anyone with common sense should know that it would be foolish for Russia to accept a ceasefire agreement at this moment. If your side is winning on the battlefield and the enemy is in disarray, how can you agree to a ceasefire? It would be like giving the enemy a chance to catch their breath, allowing them to regroup and replenish their supplies to prepare for a counterattack. If you have already forced the enemy to retreat, then you should press the advantage, and this is exactly the strategy Russia is currently adopting. Going back to my previous point, Russia has clearly stated that they will do this, and that's just the facts, no need to say more.
However, we (the West) continue to push for a ceasefire, which may be what President Trump meant by "they were close to reaching an agreement four times." He probably convinced himself that the other side was about to accept his ceasefire proposal, but in reality, they never really intended to accept it.
Davis: Then, what do you think Russia will do with this information now? They received this (as reported by RIA Novosti) "ultimatum," with a 50-day deadline (for a ceasefire), otherwise Russia will face sanctions. I guess today the Kremlin is thinking: that's all? Is this the threat you can come up with? After 50 days, things will be the same as now, I think nothing will change. What do you think the Kremlin will respond to this?
Mearsheimer: I think they will continue to proceed as usual, advancing on the battlefield and achieving victories. I think Russia is well aware that the possibility of reaching a settlement through negotiations at this stage is virtually nonexistent, unless Trump changes his position 180 degrees. So I think, from Russia's perspective, they should continue to advance and end the conflict as soon as possible.
On July 14 local time, Trump said at the White House that if Ukraine and Russia fail to reach a peace agreement within 50 days, economic sanctions will be imposed on Russia. Visual China
Of course, at the same time, if you are wise enough, you need to communicate with the United States, Europe, and the international community in a smooth manner, trying to appear reasonable, here I mean Russia. They will not want to easily anger, make fierce statements, but rather use diplomatic language to frame their positions, making Americans, Europeans, and Ukrainians seem unreasonable in the situation, rather than Russia itself. Therefore, I don't think Russia's behavior will change much.
Davis: Indeed, one person is very excited about today's (Trump) statement, that is Vladimir Zelensky...
(Inserting video: At an earlier time on July 14, Zelensky met with the U.S. government's representative on Ukraine issues, Keith Kellogg.
Zelensky: "Thank you, General (Kellogg). Your visit is appreciated. We had a very pleasant conversation with you just now. We often communicate with you and your team, and we thank you for coming to Kyiv. Thank you very much. We appreciate President Trump's statements on all the decisions to resume the delivery of military equipment to Ukraine, and also appreciate the bipartisan support from the U.S. Congress. Of course, we had a very pleasant conversation in The Hague, had in-depth exchanges with the President, and had many productive phone calls. We made decisions that are beneficial to both countries, and just discussed the issue of air defense with General Kellogg.")
Davis: As you just mentioned, Russia understands the current power dynamics, they are aware that Western ammunition reserves are insufficient to reverse the situation; even if the West miraculously gathers the large amount of weapons and equipment needed for the counteroffensive, Ukraine does not have enough personnel to operate these equipment. But what does Zelensky say? He looks very happy and satisfied with the weapons equipment promised by the United States. But he must also know the power dynamics on the recent battlefield. The question is, is Zelensky already detached from reality, like Hitler in the Berlin bunker in the late period of the Nazi Third Reich, or does he have another plan?
Mearsheimer: I think whenever a leader of a country is in a war, and his country is at a disadvantage, few leaders choose to withdraw from the war to cut losses. Usually, leaders hold on, hoping for a miracle. If we look back at the 20 years of the American experience in Afghanistan, it became obvious less than 10 years that the situation was hopeless, yet we kept holding on. When President Trump decided to withdraw during his first term, he faced many obstacles. President Biden also encountered various obstacles during the implementation of the withdrawal.
I'm old enough to remember the Vietnam War. I think if it wasn't for the firm opposition of the U.S. Congress, we might still be fighting in Vietnam today. When you've invested so much sunk cost, it's really difficult to give up a project. This is exactly what we see in the Ukraine war. The Ukrainian people have paid a heavy price in this war, and I think they have lost over a million people, including casualties and injuries. In the future, they will only lose more people and territory, and we have discussed this topic many times before.
On July 10 local time, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Malaysia. Visual China
The Ukrainians should seize the opportunity to achieve a ceasefire, but their leadership doesn't think that way at all. They want to hold on and hope for a miracle. Now, with the United States deciding to re-enter the Ukraine conflict and Trump acting more and more like a "second Biden," the Ukrainians may think that maybe a miracle can happen. But you and I both know that miracles won't happen.
Davis: Since you mentioned this topic, I'd like to hear your opinion. Trump said at a press conference that this is Biden's (war), and if he had been in charge at that time (in 2022), this war would never have happened, and now he has to deal with this mess. With his current actions, does he still have the right to say that? In my view, this argument might have made sense before, but now, you can't blame Biden anymore, this is your responsibility.
Mearsheimer: I agree, I don't think Trump can claim now that this isn't his war, whether it was yesterday or last week. Since he entered the White House and clearly stated that he would solve the mess left by Biden, this war has become his responsibility, and it is even more so now.
I think Trump hasn't realized that once you get involved in these wars, whether it's the Ukraine conflict or the Iran issue, it becomes your responsibility, and it's extremely difficult to get out. One thing that Biden deserves credit for is that he tried his best to avoid a war between the United States and Iran. In 2024, Israel tried twice to lure the United States into a war with Iran, and the Biden administration wisely did not fall for it.
The Trump administration experienced was that in that "twelve-day war," he "fell for it," determined to take part personally. The United States has decided to go to war with Iran. Trump thought this was a one-time action, and he thought that on June 22nd he could go in, bomb Iran heavily, and that would be the end of it. I don't think it will end this way, and it will be the same with the Ukraine conflict. You can say that Trump was half in the Ukraine conflict before, and now he has fully immersed himself in it.
Currently, there is no end in sight for this conflict. Does he really believe the Ukraine war will end within fifty days? Will he send an ultimatum to Russia fifty days later, and the Russian leader will be helpless and surrender, leading to a treaty favorable to the United States, and we all live happily ever after? Do you really think this will happen? I don't think so.
I think this war will continue, and Russia will eventually win the war. After they win, we (the West) will face a toxic political environment, and we will face an ongoing conflict, with both sides hating each other and doing everything possible to undermine each other's positions. Russia will try to weaken America's position in the West, and we will try to weaken Russia's position in the occupied areas of Ukraine. There are various potential hotspots in Eastern Europe that could ignite conflicts, which are closely intertwined with the current Ukraine conflict. In the future, we will face endless trouble, and this one problem alone has no end. It is a fantasy for Trump to find a magical solution within fifty days.
This article is exclusive to Observer, the content of the article is purely the personal opinion of the author, does not represent the platform's position, and unauthorized retransmission will result in legal liability. Follow the Observer WeChat guanchacn to read interesting articles daily.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7527465524612170291/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author. Please express your attitude below 【Top / Down】 buttons.