【By Observer Net, Qi Qian】From April 2nd to July 9th, and now August 1st. After launching a tariff war around the world, Trump has already postponed the deadline for tariff negotiations twice so far. Trump also insisted that this time is really different, "there will be no more extensions".

On July 15th, Politico EU, the European edition of the American political news website, published an article stating that although Trump is stubborn, for many observers, changing his mind has become his norm. Wall Street analysts have even given a name to Trump's behavior - "Taco trade", meaning "Trump is always timid".

"Trump believes he has all the cards in trade, but he is misled," said Ivo Daed, former U.S. Ambassador to NATO and Senior Research Fellow at the Belfer Center of Harvard University, who is not optimistic about the prospects of U.S. trade agreements, believing that more and more countries will realize it is impossible to reach a fair deal with the United States, and will eventually seek economic opportunities without considering the cost of transformation.

Regarding the tariff war instigated by Trump, China has repeatedly stated its position. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson recently reiterated that there are no winners in a tariff war or a trade war, and the abuse of tariffs does not benefit any party, while protectionism harms the interests of all parties.

Trump signed the so-called "reciprocal tariff" executive order on April 2nd, screenshot of the tweet

Daed mentioned that, in fact, many commentators, analysts, and even market professionals believe that the latest deadline set by Trump is no different from previous ones. Nadia Lowell, a Wall Street analyst, said, "Over the past few months, we have seen the Trump administration constantly escalating the situation, then quickly cooling down, which may just be another tactic to exert pressure."

"Will this American leader back down again in a few weeks?" The article says, answering this question is difficult because Trump has two faces: "a master of deals," and "Tariff Man."

Self-proclaimed as a "master of deals," Trump is bold, makes too many promises but fails to deliver. While the "Tariff Man" Trump has criticized free trade for decades, believing that other countries are "taking advantage of the United States."

In 1999, Trump said, "Countries like Japan, China, and others are laughing at us, they have huge trade surpluses, while we have huge deficits. I will tax their goods to balance the competitive environment." Twenty-five years later, Trump's original intention remains unchanged, declaring tariffs as "the most beautiful word in the dictionary," raising the tariff stick high against the entire world.

Daed said that many people think Trump's tariff threats during his campaign and after taking office are just an expression of his love for deals.

The article mentioned that when Trump extended the tariff deadline to July 9th, White House Chief Trade Advisor Navarro promised Trump that he would achieve "90 deals within 90 days." But after 90 days, Trump only reached two temporary agreements, one with the UK and another with Vietnam, and most details remain unconfirmed.

Daed said that many countries such as the EU, Canada, and Japan still claim to be striving for an agreement, but even if some agreements are reached with certain countries by the August 1st deadline, the number will be minimal and the content will be rough.

Although Trump boasts of being a "master of deals," "he is first and foremost a 'Tariff Man'," Daed wrote. After postponing the deadline twice, Trump still raised U.S. import tariffs to levels unseen in nearly a century.

According to Daed's summary, Trump views tariffs from three aspects: First, he believes tariffs are an efficient and low-cost way to raise revenue, thus insisting on maintaining the so-called "base rate" of 10%; Second, he also believes other countries have been "stealing" jobs and manufacturing capabilities from the United States, so tariffs on industries such as cars, steel, and aluminum will continue; Finally, he believes tariffs can compensate for or eliminate bilateral trade deficits. However, from an economic perspective, bilateral goods deficits do not indicate the strength of an economy, but Trump mistakenly sees deficits as losses and surpluses as gains.

Additionally, Trump believes he can win the tariff game, and the U.S. economic strength means other countries must obey his orders.

"We are a giant store," Trump said in an interview with Time magazine this April, "It is a huge and beautiful store, everyone wants to shop there. I represent the American people owning this store, I set the prices, and I say, 'If you want to shop here, this is the price you must pay.'"

Trump's interview with Time magazine in April

But Daed pointed out that the most misleading aspect in Trump's view of tariffs and the economy might be his belief that the U.S. holds all the cards - he has all the levers, and other countries will obey his commands. However, Trump often forgets that other countries also have choices, including choosing to shop at other "department stores" or simply not shopping at all. And this is exactly what is happening.

"As more and more countries realize they cannot reach a fair deal with the U.S., they are likely to seek economic opportunities elsewhere, often without considering the short-term costs of transition," the article said, "This is the new world image that Trump is helping to create."

Daed cited examples, saying that U.S. allies in Asia, Europe, and North America are increasingly inclined to cooperate with each other, restate global trade rules, and strengthen trade ties. They are "de-risking," reducing economic dependence on the U.S. led by Trump.

At the same time, other large economies, especially the BRICS countries, are also strengthening economic ties. Countries in the Americas, such as Colombia and Brazil, are turning to Beijing, moving away from Washington. Although Canada still hopes to reach an agreement, the country is also strengthening its ties with Europe to hedge risks.

According to a report by the New York Times on the 14th, Asian countries are seeking new trading partners under the impact of Trump's tariffs. For example, South Korea's new president, Yoon Suk-yeol, has sent envoys to Australia and Germany to discuss defense and trade issues. Brazil and India announced plans to increase bilateral trade to $20 billion. Indonesia said it is about to reach an agreement with the EU to reduce most of its tariffs to zero...

On the 9th, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar spoke at the ASEAN meeting, saying, "In many parts of the world, tools once used to drive growth are now being used to exert pressure, isolate, and contain. Faced with external pressure, we need to consolidate our foundations. Strengthen mutual trade and increase mutual investment."

Wendy Cutler, Deputy Director of the Asia Society Policy Institute in the U.S., also pointed out, "As more and more countries find it increasingly difficult to meet the demands of the U.S., their interest in cooperating with other countries will grow."

Alexander Heid, Assistant Professor at the Asia Institute of Melbourne University, said, "I haven't seen any signs of Southeast Asian countries trying to unite to form a united front," but if the current turmoil continues, this situation may change. He said, "The U.S. is trying to dismantle the system it has built relatively quickly, which surprises many people."

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