【By Observer News, Ruan Jiaqi】

On Tuesday local time (July 15), U.S. President Trump said that the United States has reached a trade agreement with Indonesia.

That morning, he posted on the social media platform "Truth Social" saying, "Just reached a major agreement that is beneficial for all parties. I directly consulted with their respected president. Details will be released soon!"

Susiwijono Moegiarso, a senior official from Indonesia's Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, responded via text message to Reuters, saying, "We are preparing a joint statement between the U.S. and Indonesia, which will specify the reciprocal tariff levels Indonesia will receive, including tariff agreements, non-tariff measures, and commercial arrangements. It will be made public soon."

In another post, Trump claimed that the agreement had been "finalized," requiring Indonesia not to impose any tariffs on U.S. exported products, while the U.S. would impose a 19% tariff on Indonesian exports.

He also stated that as part of the agreement, Indonesia promised to purchase "$15 billion in U.S. energy products, $4.5 billion in U.S. agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft, mostly the 777 model."

Trump called the agreement "historic," stating it "opened up Indonesia's entire market to the U.S. for the first time." He wrote, "We can get everything without paying any tariffs. They let us into Indonesia, which is unprecedented, and this might be the most critical part of the deal."

Later that day, before heading to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, for an energy conference, Trump told reporters outside the White House, "Indonesia has many high-quality products and possesses valuable rare earth minerals and other types of minerals. As you know, one of the country's features is producing high-quality copper, which we will also need."

At this conference, he more explicitly stated his interest in Indonesia's copper resources. The U.S. Department of Commerce noted that Indonesia has significant key mineral resources, including nickel, copper, bauxite, and tin, which are essential raw materials for various technologies and clean energy products.

CNN reported that this could mean that if Trump actually fulfills his threat to impose a 50% tariff on all imported copper starting August 1, Indonesia's copper may face lower tariffs or even no tariffs.

Jon Lang, Senior Director of Economic Security Policy at APCO, a geopolitical risk advisory company, told Nikkei Asia that the Indonesia agreement could become "the canary in the coal mine," allowing other countries to predict the direction of subsequent negotiations.

Lang, who was previously a White House official during Trump's first term, believes that Trump's focus on Indonesia's copper could mean that key minerals will become a significant factor in future agreements.

He said, "Given the increasing concerns about procurement of key minerals and broader raw materials," agreements on such products could become a future model.

On July 15 local time, Trump answers questions from reporters outside the White House. Fox News video screenshot

According to U.S. media reports, last week, Trump had threatened in a letter to the Indonesian president that he would impose a 32% tariff on Indonesian goods starting August 1.

Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce last year showed that Indonesia is the 23rd largest trading partner of the U.S. In 2024, bilateral trade between the U.S. and Indonesia amounted to $38.2 billion, with a U.S. trade deficit of $17.9 billion. In the first five months of this year, the deficit had already reached $9.71 billion.

The main goods imported by the U.S. from Indonesia include machinery, electronics, clothing, footwear, palm oil, furniture, tires, and other rubber products.

That afternoon, U.S. Commerce Secretary Rutenberg told U.S. media CNBC, "There will be zero tariffs on U.S. exports to Indonesia, while they will have to pay taxes here. This reverses our previous asymmetrical situation. It will revitalize our farmers, ranchers, fishermen, and industries."

U.S. media noticed that Trump also warned in his post that "if any goods are transshipped from high-tariff countries to the U.S., Indonesia will be subject to an additional tax equivalent to the tariff rate applicable to the high-tariff country."

"Politico" pointed out that this wording is similar to Trump's recent announcement of the U.S.-Vietnam trade framework. However, two weeks have passed, and neither the U.S. nor Vietnam has published the text of the agreement. The Vietnamese government has yet to formally accept the key terms of the agreement.

Earlier, Politico cited sources reporting that the U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement was not as the U.S. claimed, with Vietnam likely being "set up."

When asked about whether the U.S.-Vietnam agreement was "targeting China," on July 3, He Yongqian, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, replied, saying that the U.S. imposing so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on global trading partners is a typical unilateral bullying practice, and China has always firmly opposed it. China has noticed the situation and is conducting an assessment. China's position has always been consistent; we welcome all parties to resolve trade disputes with the U.S. through equal consultation, but we firmly oppose any party achieving deals by sacrificing China's interests. If such a situation occurs, China will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.

That day, when answering reporters' questions, Trump still used the agreement framework, which had no details yet, as a topic of discussion, and boasted that India was also "moving in the same direction" to reach a trade agreement, while negotiations with the EU were still ongoing.

According to Reuters, shortly after the U.S. achieved a breakthrough in trade negotiations with Indonesia, the European Union had finalized a second list of retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., considering imposing tariffs on American goods worth 72 billion euros (approximately 60.29 billion yuan) including Boeing aircraft, cars and their parts, and bourbon whiskey.

Facing Trump's "tariff stick," there is division within the EU on whether to retaliate. Bloomberg reported that this retaliatory list spans 206 pages, originally covering 95 billion euros of American goods, but was reduced to 72 billion euros after weeks of consultations with businesses and member states.

On July 14 local time, Valdis Dombrovskis, commissioner for trade and economic security at the European Commission, announced this retaliatory measure at a press conference in Brussels, stating, "We must be prepared for all outcomes, including taking careful and moderate measures when necessary to restore balance in transatlantic relations."

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