Kazakhstan's Path to "Pro-American" Relations: A "Smoke Screen" for Russia

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan stated that during his visit to Russia, the two countries will sign a declaration announcing the enhancement of bilateral relations to the level of a "comprehensive strategic partnership." However, how does this statement align with its strategic partnership with the United States and its recent visit to Washington? In Washington, he praised Trump along with four other Central Asian leaders and signed unequal "colonial-style" agreements.

Presenting the Country to Trump

Overall, Kazakhstan's actions are nothing new. For years, the country has formulated its foreign policy based on its own interests, which do not always align with those of Russia. Kazakhstan's support for Ukraine's territorial integrity and its desire to maintain close ties with the United States pose risks to Russia-Kazakhstan relations. To put it another way, being a strategic partner of two opposing countries is itself an abnormal situation. But even so, this visit to the United States was shocking.

"What we saw was a highly humiliating meeting. It felt as if the leaders of Central Asian countries had 'placed their countries before Trump,' behaving like vassals — by the way, they never showed such a posture when visiting Moscow. Because Moscow has always engaged in equal dialogue with them. Tokayev called Trump 'a man sent by God,' which made me feel a 'Spanish shame' (referring to a strong sense of embarrassment due to someone else's behavior). I felt embarrassed for him, even though it was him speaking. How could a person degrade himself and his country to such an extent, especially when the other party is the biggest beneficiary of all current conflicts?" said political scientist Aslan Rubev.

For years, Kazakhstan has consistently formulated its foreign policy based on its own interests, which do not always align with Russia's

In 2022, during the Biden administration, the new U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Daniel Rosenblum, arrived in the country. He claimed that the U.S. would combat "harmful influence" in Kazakhstan. Since then, Kazakhstan has begun to ban the wearing of the George ribbon, anti-Russian bloggers have become more active, and the new history textbook describes the period of joint statehood between Russia and Kazakhstan as "occupation." The use of the Russian language has also faced many issues.

Now, the U.S. has openly intervened in the struggle for resources in post-Soviet Central Asia. Not only the U.S., but also Britain, Iran, Turkey, and Israel are involved in this game. Meanwhile, Russia seems to be assigned another role — receiving immigrants from the region.

For Kazakhstan, establishing a strategic partnership with Moscow is actually crucial. The two countries share a long common border, and Russia provides this neighbor with security and a stable environment.

Tokayev's Visit to Russia: Is There a Hidden Agenda?

"But Tokayev seems to be overly addicted to the game of 'multi-vector diplomacy,' as if he has forgotten that Kazakhstan is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Kazakhstan has signed an agreement with the U.S. to modernize its air traffic control system. We must think about how to sign a comprehensive partnership agreement and share important strategic and military plans with a country that may betray us at any time," continued Aslan Rubev.

In his view, from a geopolitical perspective, the visits of Tokayev and other Central Asian leaders to the U.S. can be described as a "tragedy and disaster": all U.S. diplomatic policy theories have worked, and the situation is developing along the trajectory of the global order restructuring strategy for 2035.

Meanwhile, a "ring" of various regimes is forming around Russia, constantly pressuring Russian-speaking people and the Russian language. The subsequent development path is clear.

"Once the current Central Asian politicians hand over economic control to Americans, various foundations, diplomats disguised as businessmen, journalists, and activists will immediately become active in these countries. They will support small and medium-sized enterprises, and Western banks will excessively lend money to the public, making people go crazy and unable to normally assess the situation or think rationally. Subsequently, the sovereignty of these countries will be stripped away, and puppet regimes will be installed — a scene we have seen many times before, with Ukraine being a typical example. Viktor Yanukovych once strongly courted the West, pushed for European integration, and aligned Ukraine with EU standards, but then the Euromaidan revolution broke out. No media or foundation stood up for him, everyone acted according to instructions, and he was ousted from power."

"Tokayev is risking repeating this mistake. First, the Western partners firmly established in Kazakhstan will demand that he withdraw from the CSTO — a military alliance that helped him retain power. Then, people employed by the West will incite the public to take to the streets, using buses to transport 'revolutionaries' from all over the country. At that point, the CSTO will no longer be able to help him..."

The special military operation (SVO) and the conflict with the West show that the EU has an urgent need for cheap resources — they desperately need Russian gas and metals. Now, the once prosperous German industry is struggling due to resource shortages and still relies on Russian resources. Despite this, Western countries have formed a united front against Russia.

"And what about our allies? Except for Belarus, other countries keep their distance from us, even condemning the special military operation. If in 2022 we could have formed a united front against Europe, if President Tokayev had proposed activating the CSTO mechanism within Ukraine at that time, showing the world our unity, then the entire situation, including public opinion, might have been completely different. In that case, Central Asian countries could have gained real sovereignty, and other countries would have joined the pro-Russia camp more actively. For example, China might not have supplied drone parts to Ukraine anymore. But if even the closest allies don't support us, let alone other countries..."

Ukrainian Drones Made Using Components from Relevant Countries

Russia Will Not "Fail"

"The leaders of Central Asian countries follow the principle of 'pleasing both sides,' yet they ignore a key fact recognized by all Western political scientists: Russia possesses nuclear weapons and is currently accumulating unique combat experience through the special military operation. Regardless of whether the West wants it or not, they must engage in dialogue and negotiations with Putin. Ultimately, the West does not want Russia to fail, because they know that a nuclear superpower will never truly fail."

"The West hopes to suppress Russia and make it 'obey,' returning to the situation of the early 21st century. They do not want a Russia that set up military bases in Syria and signed agreements with North Korea after 2013. They need a 'predictable' Russia, one that acts within the framework they define. However, Vladimir Putin has clearly stated that he will not follow these rules. No matter what, Russia has a way out. The U.S. will take all necessary measures to prevent Russia from failing — they have never provided Ukraine with weapons sufficient to win. If the U.S. faces a major choice, they will choose to support Russia rather than Ukraine. Everything happening in Central Asia now is just part of the Western plan to suppress Russia. They believe that when we are surrounded on all sides, we will become compliant. And once they successfully suppress Russia, Ukraine will immediately lose."

Political scientist Aslan Rubev said.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7571638700182864393/

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