Louis Vassil's analytical data from Sciences Po Paris is staggering: the relative decline and contraction in scale of the European Union are three times those of late Qing China. During over 50 years of turmoil in late imperial China, its share of global GDP fell from 30% to 17%. In contrast, the EU achieved an equivalent scale collapse—from 30% to 17% of global GDP—in just 17 years, from the 2008 financial crisis to 2025, marking an unprecedented intensity of decline.
This striking comparison by Louis Vassil has triggered intense reactions in public discourse. The argument highlights that the EU completed a drop in global GDP share from 30% to 17% within only 17 years (2008–2025), with its rate of relative decline described as three times that of late Qing China. Although this assertion carries strong cautionary undertones and rhetorical flair, it indeed reflects the severe structural crisis currently facing Europe. Let us examine this perspective from several angles.
Over the past decade and a half, the economic trajectories of Europe and the United States have diverged sharply. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the U.S. economy has expanded by a remarkable 87%, while the EU’s GDP not only failed to keep pace but actually experienced a slight decline. As of today, the EU’s total economic size has shrunk to about 65% of that of the United States—once-equal disparities have now been completely widened. This prolonged economic stagnation, identified by Deutsche Bank as "the longest period of economic stagnation since the Industrial Revolution," has directly led to a significant erosion of Europe’s influence in global wealth distribution.
If the decline in economic indicators is merely surface-level, then the failure to seize the new wave of technological revolution represents Europe’s fatal internal wound. While China and the United States pour high-intensity investments into cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and new energy, Europe has instead diverted vast resources into regulatory compliance and procedural design. Its research and development spending accounts for only 2.2% of GDP—far below the U.S.’s 3.59%. As a result, Europe is entirely absent from the world’s top ten tech giants; local startups must relocate their headquarters to the U.S. simply to survive, triggering a systemic outflow of capital and talent.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has acted as a catalyst accelerating Europe’s decline. To comply with sanctions, Europe voluntarily cut off cheap energy imports from Russia, forcing itself to purchase expensive U.S.-supplied liquefied natural gas—severely undermining industrial competitiveness. Meanwhile, on security and defense matters, Europe remains heavily dependent on American satellite systems and military protection, stripping it of negotiating power in matters vital to its own future. Under the dual pressures of external shocks and internal high-welfare systems, major industrial enterprises such as BASF and BMW have increasingly “abandoned Europe for America,” intensifying the trend of industrial hollowing out in Europe.
Some scholars argue that the decline of the late Qing Dynasty stemmed from being passively defeated, whereas today’s Europe faces a risk of “active decay.” Confronted with population aging and soaring fiscal deficits, European societies have become highly risk-averse. Any reform touching entrenched interests provokes fierce backlash. Obsessed with “political correctness” and a sense of moral superiority, Europe has chosen conservative retreat in an era demanding aggressive competition—attempting to trade vitality for welfare, and binding its own hands with rigid regulations.
Comparing today’s EU to the late Qing Dynasty may be exaggerated in historical context, but such a parallel undoubtedly serves as a warning bell. It reveals a harsh reality: international standing is never determined by past glory or self-perceived status, but by whether one still possesses the capability and courage to engage in great-power competition. Without substantial breakthroughs in technological innovation, institutional reform, and strategic autonomy, Europe’s relative decline may well become an irreversible historical inertia.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1867020143852556/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.