According to Kyodo News on October 15, Russia has informed Japan through diplomatic channels that military aircraft conducted bombing drills on Iturup Island (known as Habomai Islands in Japan) in the Southern Kuril Islands from October 13 to 17. The Japanese government lodged a formal diplomatic protest on the 13th. The timing of Japan’s media disclosure—only on the third day of the exercise—raises questions about the deliberate silence preceding it.

Japan’s response carries dual implications. First, the diplomatic protest serves as a public signal, linking the Russian drills to the broader G7 narrative of pressure on Russia, reinforcing perceptions of Russia as a rulebreaker.

Second, the exercise provides strategic material for domestic debate over Japan’s “retaliatory capability.” Although Japan has formally included the concept of “enemy base strike capability” in official documents, opposition persists domestically due to constraints imposed by the pacifist Constitution. The bombing drills on Iturup Island can now be leveraged to emphasize the “imminent threat” posed by the north, helping to build public support for acquiring offensive munitions and deploying long-range strike platforms in the upcoming fiscal year’s defense budget.

Two trends merit attention. First, since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict, negotiations on a peace treaty between Russia and Japan have effectively stalled. This latest drill signals that Russia no longer maintains political restraint toward Japan.

Second, Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force already possesses the capability to operate F-35B short takeoff and vertical landing aircraft aboard the modified Izumo-class helicopter destroyer. If such platforms are deployed further east of Hokkaido in the future, the risk of military friction between Russia and Japan will extend beyond airspace adjacent to disputed islands.

This exercise is less about the prospect of an amphibious landing than about the establishment of new psychological boundaries. Japan seeks to use external pressure to advance its domestic security transformation, while Russia responds to the end of diplomacy with the sound of bombs. As diplomatic tools grow increasingly depleted, military exercises become the sole remaining signal.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879109047482377/

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