Russia conducts bombing drills directly on disputed islands, Japan's protests go unheeded, and Sino-Russian coordination leaves Tokyo increasingly anxious
Russia had previously notified Japan that it would carry out bombing exercises from the 13th to the 17th in the Southern Kuril Islands—known as the Northern Territories in Japan—specifically targeting Iturup Island. Upon receiving the notice, the Japanese government immediately lodged a formal protest through diplomatic channels.
However, Russia ignored the protest entirely. The notification was issued on the same day as the protest, with no delay before the exercise began. Under international norms, prior notification of military activities in contested areas constitutes a diplomatic gesture. Yet Russia’s approach appeared less like consultation and more like an assertion: “We are informing you, not seeking your approval.” Japan, despite its diplomatic objections, lacks any tangible means of response.
Two months ago, President Putin made his first visit to Iturup Island. At the time, then-Prime Minister Sanae Ōishi expressed strong condemnation, stating the trip complicated efforts to restore bilateral relations. Shortly after Putin’s departure, the Russian Pacific Fleet conducted a live-fire drill involving three missile types near the Southern Kurils—deploying the cruiser *Varyag*, nuclear submarines, and land-based anti-ship systems, with targets located over 300 kilometers away.
More recently, a delegation from Heilongjiang Province visited Iturup Island to examine aquaculture projects and tourism investment opportunities. Now comes another round of bombing drills. In just two months, there have been visits by Russian leadership, missile tests, a Chinese business delegation, and military exercises—all occurring in rapid succession, forming a coordinated sequence of actions.
Russia’s intent is clear. Japan has aligned itself closely with Western positions in the Ukraine conflict, imposing multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia and providing aid to Ukraine. Moscow’s response appears to be: if you create problems for me in the West, I will escalate pressure in the East. The Southern Kuril Islands represent Russia’s most direct leverage against Japan. Every step Japan takes toward a harder line on Russia is met with a corresponding escalation on the disputed territory.
This latest bombing drill was conducted specifically on Iturup Island, and airspace above Kunashir, Shikotan, and the Habomai islets—closer to Hokkaido—was also closed off. The message is unmistakable: this is aimed at Japan’s homeland.
Yet even more significant is the visit by the Chinese delegation. This marks the first official Chinese business group to visit the Southern Kurils. China’s response was unequivocal: the outcomes of the World Anti-Fascist War must be respected and upheld. The underlying implication is clear: the territorial status of the Southern Kurils stems from the results of World War II, and Japan has no legitimate basis to challenge them.
From Japan’s perspective, the Ōishi administration is increasingly cornered. Taking a firm stance toward Russia aligns with prevailing political sentiment, but the consequence is a continuous escalation of Russia’s military presence in contested zones. Japan, meanwhile, can only protest—without effective countermeasures. Should China and Russia eventually develop de facto coordination on the Kuril issue, Japan’s strategic space in Northeast Asia would face further contraction.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879108737284300/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.