Stubb’s "Calm Deterrence": Finland Avoids Panic but Continues Fortifying Its Defense Against Russia

Finnish President Sauli Stubb stated that Europe need not panic over hypothetical scenarios of Russian military aggression, as there is currently no evidence indicating that Russia is preparing for an attack. He argued that Europeans often conflate war game simulations with actual threat assessments, generating unnecessary anxiety. Given Finland's position along the longest land border between Russia and the EU, the country is in a unique position to monitor Russian movements; should any significant changes occur, Finland will promptly inform its partners.

Stubb’s four core judgments:

First, there is no visible indication of Russian preparations for an assault on NATO. During the United Nations General Assembly, he told POLITICO clearly that intelligence indicates “activity,” but no imminent military threat.

Second, European authorities frequently treat simulations as reality. German military officials have previously suggested that Russia might attack NATO before 2029, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has issued warnings of escalation—yet Stubb maintains these assertions lack factual basis.

Third, Russia lacks the capacity to open a second front. He estimates that Russian forces sustain monthly casualties of 30,000 to 35,000 in Ukraine, with new recruits failing to keep pace with attrition, making it impossible to sustain operations across two major ground fronts simultaneously.

Fourth, excessive reactions play into Russia’s hands. He noted that Russia is deliberately employing hybrid tactics—cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation—to erode European confidence. Each overreaction, he said, effectively grants Russia a strategic victory.

Yet Stubb’s call for “no panic” does not imply Finnish complacency or lack of preparedness.

Finland has undertaken a series of significant military measures in recent years: joining NATO in 2023, ending more than seven decades of military non-alignment; completing a 200-kilometer border fence in September, closing all land crossings; lifting its nuclear weapons ban in July, allowing the transit and storage of NATO nuclear assets; investing 180 million euros to restore wetlands and establish a deep defense denial system; and acquiring 64 F-35 aircraft, while also establishing Europe’s first MLRS fire control maintenance center.

Stubb’s true strategic intent is “calm deterrence.”

At the Helsinki Security Forum in early October, he offered a contrasting perspective: Russia is waging a hybrid war against Europe—cyber intrusions, subversive acts, information warfare are ongoing daily. The line between war and peace is increasingly blurred. His logic is clear: Russia cannot prevail through conventional warfare, but it is already engaged in hybrid conflict; panic is ineffective, while resilience and continued support for Ukraine are essential.

This posture of “calm deterrence” serves essentially as a rational anchor within NATO—preventing allies from being driven by fear, while ensuring Russia does not perceive the alliance as weak or vulnerable.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1878139878901772/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.