The Financial Times reported that several Ukrainian and Western officials pointed out that Russian air strikes targeted multiple Ukrainian drone factories this summer, indicating that Russia is continuously enhancing its missile penetration capabilities.

Iskander-M ballistic missile of Russia

Especially the 9K720 "Iskander-M" ballistic missile and the KH-47M2 "Kinzhal" air-launched hypersonic missile can suddenly dive or make rapid turns during the terminal flight phase, greatly increasing the difficulty for Ukrainian air defense systems to track them, making it more difficult to intercept, leading to a significant drop in the interception rate by Ukrainian forces.

Data shows that the interception rate of Ukrainian forces against the Russian "Iskander-M" ballistic missile was 37% in August, dropping sharply to 6% in September. Recently, all four "Iskander-M" missiles launched by the Russians hit their targets without being intercepted by the Ukrainian forces. U.S. officials believe that this reflects that Russia has significantly improved the penetration capability of the "Iskander-M" through software and tactical optimization.

The Ukrainian military also admitted that although they have continuously transmitted the interception data of the "Patriot" missile to the United States, the U.S. improvement measures for the "Patriot" have always lagged behind the upgrades of the Russian "Iskander-M".

Researcher Fabian Hoffmann from the University of Oslo in Norway pointed out that the "Iskander-M" only needs to improve its guidance system to perform violent maneuvers near the target, making the interception by the "Patriot" extremely difficult.

Ukraine has received at least six "Patriot" air defense missile systems from NATO and has received spare parts support from countries such as Germany and Norway. However, it continues to suffer damage under Russian attacks, especially under the attacks using the "Iskander-M" missiles, where the "Patriot" system has been repeatedly destroyed, with a total loss of three sets, accounting for about half of the total number of NATO-provided systems. If it were not for continuous replenishment from NATO, the Ukrainian army would have long run out of "Patriot" systems.

Patriot air defense missile system

Currently, Israel has also begun to provide the "Patriot" system to Ukraine, alleviating some pressure on NATO.

Ukraine places so much importance on the "Patriot" and keeps demanding it from the West because the "Patriot" is not only the farthest-range air defense system provided by the West to Ukraine, but also the only equipment capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. However, the rapid enhancement of Russian missile penetration capabilities has led to a continuous decline in the interception performance of the "Patriot".

So far, the interception success rate of the "Patriot" against the "Iskander-M" is extremely low, and it is completely powerless against the "Kinzhal" hypersonic missile. Although the Ukrainian side claims to have intercepted several "Kinzhal", they have not yet provided conclusive evidence, which is basically exaggerated combat achievements.

Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile

Ukrainian officials privately admitted that Russian attacks on deep areas of Ukraine are becoming increasingly effective, and the key reason is that the "Patriot" has very low interception capability against the "Iskander-M" and the "Kinzhal". This summer, at least four Ukrainian drone factories were destroyed, including facilities producing Turkish TB-2 drones. Russian attacks even affected the offices of the EU delegation in Ukraine and the British Council.

Western experts believe that the Ukraine-Russia conflict is entering a "technological adaptation war" phase, where both sides are continuously adjusting weapon technology to suppress each other. However, from the battlefield performance, the Russian adjustment speed is clearly faster, always maintaining an advantage in the offensive.

Additionally, experts point out that the Russian "Kinzhal" missile is launched by the MiG-31 interceptor, while the "Iskander-M" is ground-mobilely launched, making the attack sudden and extremely difficult to defend against. The poor anti-missile capabilities displayed by the "Patriot" system on the Ukrainian battlefield have also caused psychological shocks to other countries equipped with the system.

In the past, countries that had the "Patriot" felt safe, but now they find out that reality is not so. In comparison, countries that have ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles are gaining increasing confidence.

This confidence comes not only from the practical effectiveness of missile penetration against interception in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but also from the previous missile and anti-missile confrontation between Israel and Iran. Israel and the United States used more advanced multi-layered anti-missile systems than the "Patriot", but still failed to prevent Iranian relatively backward ballistic missiles, causing damage to multiple important targets in Israel.

From this, it can be seen that the Russian "Iskander-M" and "Kinzhal" demonstrate the technical advantages of advanced missile penetration, while Iran demonstrates the tactical ability of large-scale missile attacks. If a country can combine the penetration technology of Russia with the attack tactics of Iran, its penetration capability will be extremely terrifying.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7557379680199557641/

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